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Posted at 9:50 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. Dylan Covey is 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA so he deserves to be the dog here. Covey's first six MLB starts have gone about as poorly as possible. He's a 25-year-old who has only 29 IP of Double-A experience coming off an oblique injury that ended his 2016 season in May. Nothing in his skill history suggests he should be in a major league rotation, but he's a Rule 5 pick, so the White Sox have to try to find a way to keep him on the roster all season. It would not be surprising to see him move to the bullpen when Carlos Rodon returns from injury. However, that also tells us that Covey is not without long-term promise. He had many scouts interested in him  after an appearance in the 2016 Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 4.74 ERA with 10 K’s/9 over six starts. In his last start, Covey struck out nine batters in just 4.1 innings. Covey has pitched in Minnesota, the Bronx and Baltimore. He’s pitched twice at US Cellular so he’s only had one pitcher’s park appearance out of six working in his favor and this will be the second. Covey has a power arm and he has great potential too but he’s raw and he pitches for the struggling South Side, which is why the offering is so generous. 

Who the f**k are the Mariners to be priced in this range with a rookie making his first MLB start? Seattle went into Toronto last week for a four-game set and and got buried/swept by a bunch of replacement players. They returned home to take two of three from the A’s but so what. The White Sox aren’t winning a lot of games lately but they come to play every night and they can score some runs too. All that aside, Sam Gaviglio cannot be priced in this range because he’s not a top prospect and has never started a game at this level. 

The Mariners recalled the 26-year-old Gaviglio from Triple-A and the career starter worked two innings out of the pen before being asked to start here. Drafted by the Cardinals in the fifth round in 2011, Gaviglio was dealt to Seattle in a minor trade in November 2014. He has an excellent feel for pitching and can command his sinker/slider combination impeccably well. He works to both sides of the plate and induces a high number of groundballs by getting great, late action on his fastball. His slider doesn’t miss many bats, but he can drop it into the zone for strikes. Gaviglio’s best offering may be his change-up. He repeats his arm speed consistently and it gives him a deceptive weapon against left-handed hitters. Despite all the accolades, he doesn’t throw very hard—sits in the high-80s—and he is a pitch-to-contact guy. He will give up his fair share of hits and he needs to maintain his above average command to have any hope of carving out a big league career. In 32 innings for Tacoma prior to being called up, Gaviglio struck out just 16 batters. This kid throws strikes, strikes and more strikes but with a career ERA/xERA split in the minors of 4.01/4.42 over 625 innings, he’s not close to being worthy of this billing. Covey is a rookie too but he’s paid some dues and he’s not the one spotting a Dallas Keuchel-like price. Thus, me must play the true value here. 

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