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Posted at 12:20 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Kyle Freeland has enjoyed great success through his first 7 MLB starts, but that's had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. xERA shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction but he does have an elite groundball rate of 66%, which induces double plays and gets him out of trouble. He’ll get in more trouble today, that you can bet on and if he gets out of it, all the better. Freeland is not the target here. This wager is about fading perhaps the worst pitcher in MLB.

That Phil Hughes is even in the major leagues is a true testament to the lack of quality starters. That this stiff is favored, evenly priced or a small underdog is even more incredible. Forget Bartolo Colon, Jered Weaver, Mike Bolsinger, Bronson Arroyo or anyone else that doesn’t belong and put Hughes at the top of our list of pitchers that are out of place in this league. In April and early May with cool weather, these guys can sneak by but now that the weather is warming up, watch Phil Hughes blow up constantly.

Last season, shoulder surgery mercifully ended Hughes’ season in June. HR suppression drove his 2014 numbers but they're back in full force since. His fading fastball velocity has pushed him to use the cutter more, which yields the same brutal swing and miss rate and just as hard contact. The only thing Hughes can do is throw strikes but so can a pitching machine. Hughes has a BB/K split of 8/23 in 38 frames. His 5% swing and miss rate means he is not even Triple-A or Double-A worthy. His groundball/fly-ball split of 34%/44% is also troublesome and so is his 1.42 WHIP and 87 MPH fastball. Throw in a 6.10 xERA and Phil Hughes is not even a shiny object at the dollar store anymore. His career is finished so cash in before he cashes out.

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