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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. The Astros own the best record in MLB. They were seen by millions on TV this past weekend, capped off by last night’s featured game on ESPN. For gamblers, the baseball game last night was the only “real action” to bet on (few in the U.S. watch hockey, especially Nashville at Anaheim) so all those good folks saw Houston take a 2-0 lead after the first two batters of the game went yard. The Astronauts would subsequently take a 8-0 lead after three innings and then cruise home for the easy win against the highly regarded Masahiro Tanaka. The Astronauts are the talk of MLB now and after taking three of four from the powerful Yanks, they now take a perceived big step down in class when facing the not-often watched Marlins. Anyone that watched the Astros take apart the Yankees this past weekend will be quick to jump on this short line, citing it as a gift. Beware.

This is a huge letdown spot for Houston after playing a four-game set in New York. Emotions and intensity were high while Yankee Stadium was packed for all four games. Aside from that, the Astros endured a rain-delay on Saturday and played in a double-header yesterday. They’ll arrive at the park today to no fanfare whatsoever and when the first pitch is thrown, three quarters of the stadium will be empty. It’s a stark contrast to what the Astros experienced the past four days and for the most of the year at home too. The point is that Houston’s intensity level for the start of this series figures to be very low.

We often talk about situational plays being a big part of our criterion and that is the case here. The Marlins are one of MLB’s most under-appreciated and underpriced teams that are going to go on several winning streaks this season. Miami is loaded with high caliber talent and if they had the pitching, they would be contenders. The Fish figure to be more focused than the visitor, as there is no question as to which team is in the more favorable spot. We’re playing the situation here and urge you to be cautious if you were thinking of betting the small favorite.

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