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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Bartolo Colon has been the brunt of many jokes in this space over the years and it’s because he’s defied logic for years. For years, Colon’s ERA showed continued life but his xERA told a different story. There were small signs of erosion all over the place and it has finally caught up to him this year, as Colon has posted a 7.22 ERA after seven starts. Atlanta struck early in the off-season by taking several aging free agent starters off the market during this rebuilding period and Colon was one of them. He has thrived on impeccable control and command over the past five years, but he turns 44 this month and is riskier than ever but sometimes you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best. This is one of those times.

The Blue Jays have won five in a row and 11 of 15 to turn a disaster start into a respectable 17-21 record to get back into the race. After sweeping the Mariners this past weekend and taking two of three from the Indians prior, the Jays can exhale a bit here with the Braves coming to town. More importantly is that Toronto’s stock is a bit too high right now and Mike Bolsinger shouldn’t be favored over Gwinnett, let alone the undervalued Braves. Bolsinger went 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA in 28 innings last year for the Dodgers. He’s 29 years old and over 195 MLB innings in his career, he has posted a ERA/xERA split of 4.57/5.22. Starters like Bolsinger have razor thin margins of error. When one skill deteriorates (in this case several have) and they get struck with some bad luck (hit%, strand%, hr/f), it all can go bust. This is a starter with a career 7% swing and miss rate and that was whacked at Chavez Ravine more than once. In his only start this year, Bolsinger went six full against the Indians but walked four and struck out four. Luck was on his side and he’ll need lots more of it to succeed here. Bolsinger’s low floor/ceiling combo is confirmed by a horrible dominant start/disaster start split over his career. This is a pitcher not worth backing as the chalk, ever, so by process of elimination, Atlanta must be played.

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