Cincinnati @ SAN FRAN
Cincinnati +118 over SAN FRAN

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +118 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +115

Posted at 10:25 AM EST. 

4:05 PM EST. 26-year-old Lisalverto Bonilla was once was a promising, raw prospect early in his career in the Phillies and Rangers organizations. Unfortunately, after pitching in the majors for 20.2 innings with Texas in 2014, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. The Reds obtained him off waivers in February 2017. Bonilla has always impressed with his pure stuff, but he can’t find a role or stay healthy long enough for the stuff to matter. He can fire his fastball in the 94-96 mph range and complements it with a below-average slider and very good change-up. His off-speed pitch borders on plus status. He has thrown quality strikes throughout his career and gets swings and misses with his power arsenal. Bonilla has moved back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, though no organization has been able to make a final decision. He had 118 K’s and 40 BB in 111 innings, working as both a starter and reliever in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2016.Bonilla will be the immediate rotation replacement for recently demoted Rookie Davis. The decision is somewhat surprising given Bonilla's lackluster 2017 Triple-A performance to date. Bonilla has a 5.61 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in five Triple-A starts, with 27 K/9 BB in 25.2 IP. No question that he’s a wild card. He can mow them down like nothing and the Giants have made a lot of ordinary pitchers look very good this year. Bonilla has a “live” arm and is worth a shot here against a Giants team that has two wins in their past eight games.

Acquired at the 2016 trade deadline, Matt Moore posted a 4.08 ERA in 12 starts for the Giants, which was identical to the mark he recorded in his 21 starts with the Rays. This season, Moore is 1-4 in seven starts with an ERA/xERA split of 6.52/4.78. Moore's skills weren’t overly impressive last season and nothing has changed this season. He has cut down on the walks the past couple of seasons, and now has his first-pitch strike rate hovering around league average. He'll still issue his fair share of free passes, but it may not be the problem it once was for him. He's consistently shown the ability to miss bats with 7 K’s/9 but that’s where all the good news ends. Moore allows a lot of fly balls and line drives. He swing and miss rate is below league average at 8%. His 1.55 WHIP is awful and he seems to be getting worse instead of better. Over his last five starts, Moore has a BB/K split of 13/25 in 25 innings with a horrid 1.86 WHIP and an ERA/xERA split of 8.53/5.07. He also pitches for the team with the worst winning percentage in baseball.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas