Atlanta @ MIAMI
Atlanta +118 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +118 Bet365 +110 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. This is once again a case of surface stats having influence on the price and it’s something we’ll continue to try and exploit. Mike Foltynewicz comes in with a 4.55 ERA after six starts but a low strand percentage of 69% has caused most of the ERA damage. In his last start, Foltynewicz’s strand % was 44%. That 4.55 ERA is staring down bettors in the face but under the hood, Foltynewicz has posted rock solid numbers. He has a BB/K split of 10/27 in 30 innings with a supported swing and miss rate of 12%. His skills have been trending the right way for three years now. Some guys take longer to bloom than others and now Foltynewicz is on the verge of a breakout. He throws 96 MPH heat, he misses bats and he comes into this start with a 3.79 xERA, which is even better than it looks because as it turns out, Atlanta’s new home, Sun Trust Park is a hitter’s paradise. “Folty” has a great chance to thrive at this park.

By contrast, Jose Urena comes in with a 1.69 ERA after seven appearances and that number is staring down bettors in the face too. However, it’s fool’s gold and it’s also worth noting that Urena has made just one start this year. Urena went 4-9 with a 6.13 ERA in 84 innings last year. He rode the Triple-A shuttle in the first half and that odometer is likely to keep rolling this year. Pitching mostly in relief this season, Urena has a lousy 10 K’s in 21 innings so he’s clearly not well suited for a role that requires strikeouts. Urena has a 6% swing and miss rate, which should bode well here for a Braves’ squad that puts the ball in play. Atlanta has struck out the fewest times in the NL and second fewest in all of MLB. Lastly, Urena’s 4.72 xERA is more than three runs higher than is actual ERA, which is a hugely wide gap that reveals his true weak skills. This is a strong value play that has a great chance to cash. 

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Our Pick

Atlanta +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110