BEST LINES: Pinnacle +104 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. The Royals 12-21 start is one of the worst marks in baseball. Aside from that, they were slaughtered 12-1 last night by Tampa and they’re right back at it this afternoon. Here’s where it gets interesting. With a much better record and playing at home, Tampa obviously has far more market appeal than the Royals. Jake Odorizzi has a 2.88 ERA and he also has a 1.38 ERA over his last three starts. While Jason Vargas has put up good numbers too, Vargas has been around for years and has never had sustained success at this level so he has less appeal than Odorizzi by a wide margin too. Combine all the above and we have to question why the Rays are barely favored here. It looks like an extremely short price and that raises flags for us.

The odds makers are sharp man. Don’t ever think they are giving away something because they’re not. A look under the hood of both pitchers reveals that Odorizzi is in line for big regression while Vargas is not. Furthermore, K.C.’s poor start is also in line for a correction to the good because the Royals are so much better than their records suggests.

Jake Odorizzi’s fly-ball rate ticked up again last year and there is no improvement this year. HR’s were also more persistent and damage inflicted by RHBs is on the upswing. There is nothing this year in Odorizzi’s skill set that suggests growth. He has always had an unimpressive dominant start/disaster start split. The only thing that keeps his head above water is an upper hand against lefties. He has a below average 36%/28%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Odorizzi has made five starts this year and only two of them are of the pure quality variety. Both of those came against the weak hitting and depleted Blue Jays. The line may look cheap but Odorizzi’s numbers are an illusion and the odds makers know it. Now, you do too.

Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jason Vargas tossed only a few innings at the tail-end of 2016 and didn’t exactly have a stellar track record before then. Vargas’s average velocity remains in the 86-87 mph range but this year he’s changed his pitch mix. He’s using his two-seam fastball more (35%, compared to 14% in 2014), and four-seamer less (19%/43%). He’s also used an effective knuckle curve (13%) this year. Vargas has a strong BB/K split of 7/35 in 38 innings, which has the support of a 13% swing and miss rate and 68% first-pitch strike rate. The new pitch repertoire seems to be working for Vargas so perhaps he can improve on the 4.00+ ERA he typically had before surgery. The early returns say Vargas’ improvement is legit. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.