Cleveland @ TORONTO
Cleveland -1½ +120 over TORONTO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +120 Bet365 -1½ +115 SportsInteraction -1½ +110 5DIMES -1½ +115

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays are a team in serious trouble for the time being and there is no cure until they get some healthy bodies back. With Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and perhaps Kendrys Morales all out (Morales left last night’s game with a hamstring issue), the Blue Jays don’t have the firepower to compete with Oakland, let alone the Indians. This makeshift lineup that has to rely on third tier offensive players to deliver will now face a pitcher with filthy stuff.

Danny Salazar suffered a parade of injuries last year that began in June that reads like a big flashing caution sign. Shoulder fatigue, elbow soreness and forearm tightness all played a role in Salazar’s 2016. Despite that, Salazar still managed to raise his K-rate and lower his fly-ball rate, which only adds to his tantalizing intrigue. Salazar will bring a modest 2-3 record with a 4.28 ERA into this, his seventh start of the year. On the road, Salazar has a 1-2 record with a 4.64 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Salazar is another perfect example of why we do not buy surface stats. He has 49 K’s in 34 innings with a 20% swing and miss rate. His K’s per nine and swinging strike rate are both tops in the majors. A ridiculously high 40% hit rate (a luck-fueled stat) is the reason for his ERA damage. Salazar can light up the gun with his 96 MPH fastball but it's a devastating change-up (23% swing and miss rate; 20% usage) that allows him to miss bats and maintain an elite strikeout rate. Salazar has three elite pitches and is line to reduce his ERA to inch closer to his 2.82 xERA.

Francisco Liriano is 2-1 at home with a 1.59 ERA. Over his last three starts, Liriano is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA so on paper, he looks stronger than Danny Salazar but it’s not even close. Don’t get us wrong, as Liriano can pitch and when he’s on, he can be very difficult to hit. However, what he can’t do is throw strikes consistently and so a patient team always has a chance to blow him up. In 26 frames, Liriano has walked 20 batters. His WHIP of 1.75 reveals that he is always at the mercy of strand percentage. Even if he’s getting guys out and working out of innings, he’s always deep into counts, which in turn creates early exits due to a high pitch count. Toronto’s taxed bullpen is also unreliable. A lot of things have to go right for the Blue Jays to compete here and if that comes to pass, so be it. More likely is that Cleveland scores four or more and covers this number. 

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Our Pick

Cleveland -1½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110