N.Y. Yankees @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +100 over N.Y. Yankees

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Tim Adleman has a BB/K split of 4/20 in 21 frames over four appearances (three starts). He also brings a 13% swing and miss rate to the table. His 4.22 ERA has done him no justice thus far but the jury is still out on whether it’s legit or not. We’ll discuss his pros and cons at a later time because it’s not relevant right now because this is more about fading the Yanks than wagering on Adleman.

Yesterday we targeted the Reds, citing that the Yankees were in a very unfavorable situational spot for this series. If exhaustion didn’t set in on the Yanks for last night’s game, chances are that it will here. Just to reiterate, the Yanks are coming off four successive series against the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Cubbies, respectively. Sunday night’s 18-inning victory at Wrigley ended about 3:00 AM EST and the Yanks had to travel to play last night’s opener just 17 hours later. The Yanks did not look exhausted last night in a 10-4 victory so fatigue will likely hit them hard here. Aside from that, Masahiro Tanaka is not pitching this time. Instead it’ll be the very hittable C.C. Sabathia.

It's no secret that the once-indestructible Sabathia isn't what he once was but his 180 innings of 3.91 ERA in 2016 was passable. Sabathia allowed just three earned runs in his first three 2017 starts combined but there is no chance of a career renaissance here. With diminished velocity, Sabathia hasn't been able to rack up elite strikeout totals. He's missed a few more bats thus far in 2017, but we're skeptical that can hold all season. The control has wavered with little support from his sub-indicators (first-pitch strike rate and ball %). As a result, Sabathia’s 15 walks in 33 innings is heading into dangerous territory. With two straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA, a fastball sputtering near 90 mph, and brutal venues to pitch in like this one, there's little—if any—upside for Sabathia spotting a tag on the road against the upstart Reds. Last night, Cinci had numerous opportunities to put up crooked numbers but failed to do so. Against C.C., they aren’t likely to fail again

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110