BEST LINES: Pinnacle +126 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +125

Posted at 11:10 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. In six starts, Alex Cobb has some decent surface stats. Cobb is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and he’s coming off a six-inning, four-hit gem (on paper) against the Marlins in which he did not allow a single run. We say on paper because Cobb struck out two batters and one of those was Miami’s pitcher. He also walked two. Frankly, that’s been the story of his early season so far. Cobb is a blow-up waiting to happen because he’s putting the ball in play far too often. In 35 innings, Cobb has a mere 23 K’s. His WHIP is 1.43, which is well above our 1.30 threshold of acceptability. Cobb’s swing and miss rate has gone from 11% in his first two starts to 9% in his next two to 7% in his last two. Remember, this is a guy that threw just 22 innings last year after undergoing TJS. He appears to be laboring more with each passing start and his 5.13 xERA over his last five starts reveals a pitcher that is on the brink of some poor outings, Cobb is on our radar as a fade target and we’ll put that to the test here.

We’re usually not in favor of backing relievers turned starters but Joe Biagini is a starter turned reliever. He was a starter for 86 games in the Giants farm system before being picked up in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2015. The Giants were developing him one level per year after they selected him in the 26th round of the 2011 draft. Biagini has a tall, beefy frame that allows him to pitch downhill and induce groundballs. He has a deep repertoire of pitches to keep hitters off-guard. Biagini has appeared in 14 games this season and has a BB/K split of 3/17 over 19 innings to go along with an elite 58% groundball rate. He’s not going to be overwhelmed by starting. He was thrust into important innings late last year and handled it intrepidly. His impeccable control in relief can stick given his top-tier first-pitch strike rate and a concurrent surge in swing and miss rate also supports another increase in strikeouts. With these skills, Biagini could quickly become a story around these parts but right now, he’s an undervalued starter turned reliever turned starter. We’re on it.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will pick it up again on Monday. On Sunday, there is not enough time to do the research. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.