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Posted at 12:50 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. With a 2.45 ERA after five starts, Lance Lynn (RHP) figures to get some play here because the market pays for surface stats. We pay for skills and sub-indicators and while Lynn is absolutely serviceable, he’s not as good as his ERA suggests. In 29 innings, he’s walked 10 batters and struck out 25. That’s good but not great and it may surprise you to learn that the Braves have struck out the third fewest times in MLB. In his first two starts this year against the Cubs and Nationals, Lynn was hit rather hard and the Cardinals lost both games by scores of 6-4 and 8-3, respectively. In five innings in both starts, he threw 101 and 98 pitches, respectively. He then faced Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in his last three starts and put up some great looking pitching lines but the results were better than the performances.  Lynn’s first-pitch strike rate is a mere 53%. His fastball tops off at 91.5 MPH, which is down from his 95 MPH fastball before TJS in November of 2015. In his last start, Lynn had an ugly 37%/25%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split and he brings an xERA into this start of 4.02. Regression in Lance Lynn’s ERA may not happen here but regression is an absolute at some point and it very likely starts here.

St. Louis is 13-14 but there is nothing about them that looks promising this year. It’s also worth noting that both Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty both left last night’s game so their outfield just got a whole lot thinner. We’re almost certain that Piscotty will end up on the 10-day DL and there’s a pretty good chance that Fowler will miss a game or two and maybe much more.  

Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) went 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 123 innings for the Braves last year. Mediocre results cloaked this fireballer's steady skills growth, but he closed with a flourish as control improved and his K-rate spiked, which was backed by a strong swing and miss rate. A blood clot delayed Foltynewicz’s start last season and then elbow woes arose in June. He appears healthy now and thus, a breakout looms. The good news for everyone reading this is that Foltynewicz is 0-3 and that sticks out. Foltynewicz has always had a big arm, which helped make him a top prospect in most publications a few years ago. He hasn't made much of an impact yet in the majors, but that is about to change. Foltynewicz has shown the ability to miss bats and showed growth elsewhere in 2016, as he harnessed both his control and fly-ball tendencies. He was particularly effective down the stretch, when he recorded 42 strikeouts, and only 10 walks, in his last seven starts in 39.1 innings. His excellent pure stuff, strong pedigree and early season returns (2.81/3.11 ERA/xERA) puts this Atlanta starter high on our buy list of undervalued starters. 

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.

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