Milwaukee @ ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee +136 over ST. LOUIS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +136 Bet365 +130 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +135

Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

7:15 PM EST. Adam Wainwright (RHP) made just four starts in 2015 because of an Achilles injury. Last year he returned to make 33 starts. He’s now 35 years old and recently missed a year so it begs the question, has he been successful since he returned? Yes and no. YES: Wainwright missed nary a turn last year and reached his pre-injury strikeout rate and first pitch strike rate too. The middle months were vintage Wainwright. NO: Fewest full-year innings pitched with spotty command throughout. Lefties battered him and as a result, Wainwright led the league in earned runs and hits allowed vL. This year, Wainwright has made five starts and he continues to labor. Although he has 26 K’s in 25 frames, his swing and miss rate of 9% with a 90 MPH fastball says strikeout regression is about to punch back. Wainwright has zero pure quality starts. He’s hittable and a big risk as the chalk, especially with this Cardinals weak offense behind him.

Chase Anderson (RHP) owns a nifty 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after five starts. While those marks have been helped by a friendly 92% strand rate and 4% hr/f, it is noteworthy that Anderson has shown extensive improvement in his command sub-indicators from 2016 to 2017: 8.2% to 11% swing and miss rate, 58% to 65% first-pitch strike rate, 39% to 35% ball%. There's some great value here on Anderson and the Crew and we’re not about to pass it up. 

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Our Pick

Milwaukee +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)

Washington +128 over Houston
Kansas City +122 over Baltimore
Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis
San Diego -103 over Toronto