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Posted at 5:40 PM EST. 

8:15 PM EST. Last year, the Tigers paid Mike Pelfrey (RHP) $67K an inning to allow 160 hits in 119 innings and strike out a brutal 56 batters. It was another brutal year for Pelfrey among many others with his strike rate and command the worst of any MLB starter (min. 100 IP), and there are no signs of improvement. An August back injury led to a bullpen demotion, but hey, at least he kept ball on the ground. He’s owed another $8 million in 2017 so we guess the joke's on us. Nonetheless, Pelfrey got the call to fill in for James Shields. The White Sox only expect Shields to miss a couple of starts. Pelfrey started Saturday, April 22, against the Indians, giving up four runs in 4.1 IP. He had 1 K, 1 BB and gave up 1 jack. In his last start, he surrendered six hits and three runs in 5 innings against the Tigers. In two starts, he’s walked five batters, struck out three, has a 1.67 WHIP, a 5% swing and miss rate and a xERA of 6.75. This is about as bad as it gets for a starter.

Nathan Karns (RHP) has a 6.26 ERA after four starts covering 23 innings so his stock is low. However, Karns’ is the poster boy this year for the reason we do not buy surface stats. Karns has 19 K’s with a 12% swing and miss rate. His 61% groundball rate is tops in the majors among starters with three or more starts. All of his ERA damage comes via an extremely unlucky 57% strand rate, which is about 18 percentage points lower than league average. Karns get strikeouts, he keeps the ball on the ground and all of his other sub-indicators are moving in the right direction too. The Royals are a frustrated team but this is one game that they figure to get all those frustrations out in. 

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