Pittsburgh @ CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh +121 over CINCINNATI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +121 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +120 WilliamHill +120

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

Scott Feldman (RHP) spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He's back in a starting role and with a couple other starters on the DL, his grasp on the role is pretty secure for now. Feldman has struck out 24 batters in 28 innings so far and brings a 3.25 ERA after five starts into this start. Thing is, he doesn't miss many bats. Feldman ranked in the bottom 10 in K-rate in both 2014 and 2015 (min. 100 IP), and bottom 20 in swing and miss rate both years. A move to the pen helped him bump up the strikeouts in 2016, but he was the same guy in his five starts, with 5.5 K’s/9. He's been stingy with the walks the past couple of seasons but not this year, as he’s already walked 13 batters and a history of slightly league average first-pitch strikes suggest the free passes he’s issued is right on par. On the surface, Feldman is off to a pretty decent start. However, his recent history is a strong indication that he's not going to generate many whiffs going forward and this match-up is not a favorable one for him because the Pirates lead the NL in fewest strikeouts. Feldman has been able to outperform his xERA in each of the past three seasons, but that is not a trait he had previously shown to possess (ERA was higher than xERA each of the previous four seasons). His ground ball tendencies will help soften the damage, but the lack of swing and miss stuff, combined with a bandbox of a home park make Feldman an extremely risky proposition and usually the second best starter in the game.

After four starts, Tyler Glasnow (RHP) is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA. In 15 innings, Glasgow has walked 13 and struck out 17. In 17.1 innings this past spring, Glasnow faced 85 batters. He struck out 28 of them, as he typically does, and he only walked seven of them, as he atypically does. A 33% strikeout rate does not surprise us (32% for his minor league career), but an 8% walk rate does (12% for his career). There are reports that he is throwing more of a two-seam fastball instead of his usual four-seamer, and perhaps that lets him control the ball better. That fastball is the 6'8", 220-pound righty's calling card, a plus-plus offering that can reach 98mph. He couples that with a filthy upper-70s curve that is flashing plus. His third pitch, the change-up, is still a work in progress, but it shows potential. The biggest hurdle for Glasnow has always been his control, but when you strike out a third of the batters you face, even slightly below average control would be sufficient for big league success. The Pirates know he has growing pains ahead of him, but named him their #5 starter out of spring training, stating they feel he can learn the most on the big league level. He will have games where he dominates, and there will be blow-up games where the timely hits drive in those baserunners he walked. There is risk here with Glasnow and we would not recommend him as the chalk. More importantly, Scott Feldman’s chances of dominating are a fraction of what Glasnow’s chances are and if you want to speculate on potential growth for a pitcher with nasty stuff like Glasnow has, this is a place to do so.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

No Run in First Inning -105