Oakland @ MINNESOTA
Oakland +120 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +120 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +120 WilliamHill +120

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. The Twins have won four of their last five games but all of those were on the road at Texas and Kansas City. Prior to those five road games, the Twinkies had a nine-game homestand and went 2-7 so perhaps being at home in the cold weather is not so good for this home-run hitting squad this early in the season.

Ervin Santana’s (RHP) 0.77 ERA after five starts has his stock through the roof but there is no chance of him maintaining numbers like that. Toiling away for a team that hasn’t been competitive for a while, Santana also posted a strong second half in 2016, and climbed the bump for the Twins on Opening Day but there is no growth here despite what the numbers say. Look under the hood and we get a more accurate account of Santana’s real skills. There’s unlikely to be further growth. Santana’s second half ERA last year and first five starts this year benefited from hit percentage and strand percentage. Santana’s swing and miss rate is a mere 7% and his BB/K ratio of 10/26 in 35 innings is not even league average. A 27%/27% dominant start/disaster start split in 2016 indicates what to expect from Santana—occasional stretches of dominance, some bad outings, and a whole lot of middle-ground starts. He’s not doing enough to sustain long-term success over the full year. While he’s the Twins’ #1 starter, he’d be a #3 or 4 starter on most other teams and this would be a great time to fade him. His dominance in the early going will not and cannot last.

Then of course there is Sonny Gray (RHP), who makes his season debut here. Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Gray’s playing time (10 weeks over two DL trips) last season. His control and hr/f ballooned, which sent his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Even so, Gray’s first-pitch strike rate, and groundball % stayed solid, giving hope that with health, 2016 can be forgotten. Hit and strand rate regression will also make 2017 look a lot better. Gray had a solid minor league start his last time and now his arm appears sound. He still owns the skills that netted a 3.08 ERA or lower in each of his first three seasons. His xERA's aren't quite as kind (career 3.76), but even that ERA would make Gray worth a wager when taking back a price against Minnesota and Santana.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.

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Our Pick

Oakland +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110