Tampa Bay @ MIAMI
Tampa Bay +120 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +120 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +120 WilliamHill +120

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Edinson Volquez’s (RHP) skills have been wobbly for a while. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB and an overwhelmed xERA. This year, Volquez has 23 K’s in 24 innings but sub-indicators say the numbers of K’s are coming way down. Volquez has a 52% first-pitch strike rate, a 1.68 ERA, a weak 39% groundball rate and he’s walked 14 batters in 24 innings. If that’s not enough, his 6.18 xERA should be. 40% of his pitches are balls and the best pitch in baseball always has been and still is, strike one. Line up every starting pitcher in baseball in order of who to fade when favored and Volquez would be first in line or damn close to it.  

Alex Cobb (RHP) brings a 4.66 ERA into this start so his appeal is not great right now. That’s fine with us. Cobb struggled last season, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star, and he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and he’ll be getting stronger as the season wears on. We’re buyers now, however. Cobb faced Baltimore, Boston and Houston after facing the Yankees twice in his first two starts. That’s a daunting task for any pitcher. He’s walked just six batters in 29 innings with 21 K’s. In his last start against the Orioles, Cobb had a groundball rate of 56%. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction and he’s trending in that same direction now. Without question, Cobb is a much better option taking back a price than Volquez is spotting one and we’re on it.

NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks. 



Our Pick

Tampa Bay +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110