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Posted at 6:00 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. We’re committed to playing one baseball total daily for the remainder of the year and if it works out, we’ll start posting more. We’re studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball. The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.

There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at Fenway is 72,64, which is higher than yesterday’s reading between the Cubs and Red Sox, where the final was 6-2 but it was 2-1 going to the eighth inning. A Cubs error in the eighth led to two Boston runs and the game still went under the number. The two teams combined for just 11 hits. The temperature in Boston is just 49.8 (°F).

Keep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a high reading with two very decent pitchers going. Also note that both teams are coming off intense series on the weekend that generated a lot of fanfare and interest so there is a letdowm factor on a Monday night in play here too.

Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning it as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. This looks like the best total of the day.  

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