Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh +109 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +111 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +120  WilliamHill +110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. The Pirates have a worse record than the Marlins, which inflates the value here on the dog. In this week’s podcast, we talk extensively about the luck driven numbers in baseball and the unlucky numbers too. Baseball, by far, is the most stat driven sport because it’s all numbers, which provides us with opportunities daily. This is one of them because the Pirates have been unlucky and the proof is in the pudding. Pittsburgh has struck out fewer times than every team in baseball besides the Red Sox. What that means is they are putting the ball in play and thus, they should be scoring as many runs as the Red Sox (minus park factors). Last night, the Buccos put up 12 runs in Miami and figure to put up a bunch more here on Dan Straily (RHP).

Straily found surprising success in the second half of last year when he made strides with his control, but he got plenty of help from strand percentage and hit percentage (including 21% for year against lefties). His fly-ball tendencies led to an NL-high 31 HR allowed, but luckily, 24 were solo shots. Issues with the long ball aren't going away and he'll be hard-pressed to post another sub-4.00 ERA in 2017. He’ll have value as a pup but he has none here against the Pirates and Ivan Nova (RHP).

Nova is 2-2 with a 2.00 ERA after four starts. He was quietly was one of the game's most skilled starters in the second half of 2016. Those skills were driven by his ability to pound the strike zone at a high rate while inducing groundballs at a high clip. In fact, his 3.40 ERA in the second half was backed by a nearly identical 3.49 xERA. He’s doing the same thing this year with one walk in 27 frames and when a pitcher can locate like that while working with Ray Searage, sky is the limit. Nova has 93 MPH heat to go along with a 0.89 WHIP and offers up so much more value here as a dog than the Fish offer up as the chalk. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks. 



Our Pick

Pittsburgh +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110