Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh +101 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +150 Bet365 +155 SportsInteraction +160  WilliamHill +155

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. Adam Conley (LHP) is four games (three starts) in this season and it is much of the same “meh” as last season. His fastball tops off at 90 MPH and his swing and miss rate is in the average range. In 18 innings, Conley has a BB/K split of 7/14 but his first-pitch strike rate of just 54% says more walks are coming. Conley pitched little after middle-finger tendinitis in August of last year. He's lost his former groundball tilt, which is an indication that he’s getting the ball up and not down. His swing and miss rate says his strikeout rate will regress too. Finally, Conley’s 4.54 xERA confirms that he’s too risky. This is an average starter on his best day. 

Jameson Taillon (RHP) is anything but average. After missing two full years following Tommy John surgery, Taillon burst onto the scene in 2016, recording a 3.38 ERA in 18 big league starts and is now close to taking his rightful spot as one of the best young arms in the game. Taillon showed no signs of rust last year following his lengthy absence. He kept the walks to a minimum and while he’s walked 10 batters in 25 frames this year, his first-pitch strike rate of 68% says his walks per nine are coming way down. Taillon has excellent pedigree with an outstanding 55% groundball rate. He profiles as an extremely polished pitcher already, and should be able to provide us with profits all season long. We'll gladly put that to the test here in this favorable matchup.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks. 

 



Our Pick

Pittsburgh +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110