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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. The Nationals are coming off four games in Colorado, where they scored 46 runs. After losing the opener of that series, 8-4, Washington would win the next three while scoring 15, 11 and 16 runs respectively. Combine that outburst with their recent pedigree and throw Max Scherzer (RHP) into the mix and you have a seriously inflated price here.

Someday all the innings pitched may catch up to Scherzer but there are no signs yet. His control and first-pitch strike rate have fallen back in line with his career norms after four starts this year but that’s nitpicking. His 33 K’s in 28 frames is one clear sign that he's still a stud at the top of his game. However, his always high fly-ball rate will always leave him susceptible to bad hr/f turns and that’s the risk here. One two-run shot and we can get to the cashier’s window. Scherzer’s ERA is 3.38 and if he gives up two or three here, we’ll be more than happy to roll the dice with Jacob deGrom. Aside from that, spending four long days in Colorado with four hour games is not easy to rebound immediately from. The Nats may be fatigued here and deGrom is precisely the type of pitcher that can make any lineup look silly. 

Give us deGrom at this price and we’ll bite every single time. Last year, he couldn't quite match his amazing 2015 campaign, but this remains an elite skill set. deGrom underwent September surgery to reposition an ulnar nerve in his right arm and now looks better than ever. His 2nd half fade last year was due mostly to his final three outings (16 ER in 14.2 IP) so pay no attention. 

Jacob deGrom struck out 10 batters in his fourth start of the 2017 season. He also walked six and gave up three earned runs on eight hits. The statline alone might tell you it was his weirdest game of the year, and maybe his worst. Before that, in his third start, he went seven innings and struck out 13. He allowed back-to-back dingers early and then took control of the game, allowing only three more baserunners the entire night. His pitches were humming like a barbershop quartet. Frankly, his pitches have been humming all season but it’s more than that. Check out deGrom’s pitch mix this year:

Four seamer 42%

Slider 18.8%

Change 16.7%

Curve 15.6%

Two-seamer 6.3%

deGrom will throw any of these five pitches at any time with any count. The batter has no idea what’s coming and that’s why he’s capable of throwing a gem every time he steps on the mound. Indeed the Nationals are scary and they’re good but prices like this should never be ignored when the starting pitcher is as good as our guy is.  

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