Posted at 10:10 AM EST

7:10 PM EST. The Braves are the hottest team in the NL but they continue to come in as underdogs daily. The price here on Atlanta is high because Aaron Blair brings a 7.71 ERA into this start but you know our position on ERA’s. Unless they are consistently high like Clayton Kershaw, consistently average like Ian Kennedy or consistently low like Ryan Vogelsong, they are largely misleading. For instance, a guy like James Shields can post an ERA of 3.50, 5.50 the next year and 4.95 the year after that. You’ll also see several stretches every year by almost every pitcher that will see tyheir ERA's flunctuate greaty for stretches.  A starter often posts an in the 2.25 range over a stretch of five starts followed by an ERA in the 7.75 range over the next five starts. ERA’s are generally not consistent because of luck factors. Strikeout rates, walk rates, groundball rates and xERA are ALWAYS consistent because they reveal the true skills of a given pitcher. It is for that reason that one cannot put any weight whatsoever on Aaron Blair’s 7.71 ERA after 61 innings.

We’re not suggesting that Blair will thrive today but don’t be surprised if he does. At one point in 2015 after over 100 minor league innings, Blair had a 1.42 ERA/2.27 xERA with 10.4 K’s/9. He is a former supplemental first-round pick in 2013. Blair has impressed with his aggressive nature and ability to pitch downhill to keep the ball on the ground. Blair goes after hitters with a heavy 92-95 mph fastball while his curveball, though inconsistent, can get hitters to swing and miss. His change-up is a plus offering with good deception and arm-side bore. His career stat line doesn’t do him justice, as he has more strikeout ability than he’s shown in the past. Blair is a big part of the Braves future but he’s not getting any credit here whatsoever. A previous stint in the majors followed by a demotion and a subsequent call-up is sometimes the perfect recipe for success. Make no mistake that Blair can pitch and he’ll do so here against a team that couldn’t care less and he'll oppose one of the most below average starters in baseball.

After nearly two months on the DL, Wei-Yin Chen is back and started on September 19^th against Washington, where he lasted 4.1 innings and surrendered four runs. Before his injury, Chen had compiled a 5.32 xERA. Given the uncertainties surrounding Chen after the long absence, he's probably someone to pass on unless you're at a point in the season where you’re up so much money and you just want to gamble. Take a look at the Baltimore Orioles putrid rotation. Then have a look at Wei-Yin Chen. You see, Baltimore didn’t want to resign him and that should tell you all you need to know about Chen, especially when the Orioles decide to sign guys like Yovani Gallardo for 70 million. Consistency has its value, but Chen’s xERA and mediocre other skills say 2015 was as good as it's going to get. That this stiff is priced in this range is absurd.

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