Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. The Rogers Center is one of the more hitter friendly parks in the majors and we find a very beatable number here with Marco Estrada going up against Matt Shoemaker. If the Angels weren’t losing 15 out of every 16 games, we would absolutely be playing them here because Marco Estrada’s clock struck midnight two games ago. Estrada has been tagged for four jacks over his past two games. In his last start, he gave up three jacks in four innings. Two starts ago, Estrada walked four batters in five innings in a 9-2 loss to the Rays. Estrada has been riding a wave of good fortune for almost two years without a secret sauce. He throws 87 MPH heat. Only Jered Weaver’s velocity is lower. He is constantly behind in the count with a weak 51% first-pitch strike rate over his last 10 starts. Marco Estrada’s best skills include balls being hit to the warning track and line drives right in the glove of somebody. This is truly a case of “career-best performance with career-worst skills”. Nearly half his metrics are in steady decline. There's a dangerous level of disconnect between 2016 ROI and xERA and someone's gonna (over) pay the price. Don't let it be you.

The Angels should be an automatic play here against Estrada but the problem is that their bullpen is garbage and the Jays could score 9 times. Matt Shoemaker might get whacked too. Shoemaker has watched his skills tail off after his electric May and June. He has been one of the game's best starters when pitching at home (3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), and those marks have been backed by full skill support. Both his stats (5.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and skills tail off quite a bit when he pitches on the road and things appear to be getting worse too. Shoemaker has just 16 K’s over his last 33 innings. His 39%/24%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is screaming for trouble at this venue. Shoemaker is 3-9 on the road and he also has to fight his mind when pitching in Toronto. In two appearances here last season, Shoemaker was tagged for three bombs, 13 hits, 10 runs and a .317 oppBA in just 9.2 innings. This is a low number based on two pitchers with very misleading surface stats.  

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