Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. We have no idea what the result of this game will be but what we do know, 100% for sure is that you are paying a massive premium to bet on Boston here with the overpriced and overvalued Rick Porcello throwing. With 17 wins and just three losses, Rick Porcello has been a boon for those who have backed him this year. Despite a blue-chip pedigree and decent skills, current production levels are not sustainable for Porcello for several reasons. Porcello lacks the premium velocity (90 MPH) and dominant off-speed pitch that most top-of-the rotation guys utilize to induce swinging strikes, rack-up strikeouts, limit base runners and strand those who do manage to get aboard. His 2016 swinging strike rate of 8% is more indicative of his 2012 & 2014 K-rate levels than the current 7.5 rate. Porcello’s loss of groundball percent is due to the decreased effectiveness of his sinker (4-year sinker GB% trend: 65%, 58%, 56%, 45%). And it's no surprise that home runs have become more of a problem the last two years. On pace to challenge for 20 wins, 170+ Ks, with a 3.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, this may very well end up being a career year for Porcello. However, the sub-indicators hint that his skills are worse now than in 2012 when he pitched to a 4.59 ERA. Porcello has outstanding control but he also puts the ball in play and starters that do that are usually .500 pitchers with ERA’s in the 4.50 range. Porcello plays for a great offense and that allows him to relax but there are blowups in that average skill set of his.

Surging indicators make Matt Andriese very worthy of backing here. Andriese’s K-rate level in the minors in 2015 (9.6) and 2016 (11.5) hints at a recently revved up arsenal and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 13%, which, if maintained, could result in a K-rate better than 8.0 going forward. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone (Ball%) and gotten ahead early in the count (first-pitch strike rate) this year.  He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%). Andriese’s oppBA of .240 over 91 innings is solid. He’s only walking one batter every four frames. Yeah, Boston is Boston and they can win here for sure but we are after value plays and not inflated prices. That applies here. 

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