Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. If you make one wager today, this should be it because the value on Philadelphia to defeat the Chicago is tremendous. Jerad Eickhoff was hit hard in July, at least on the surface (4.50 ERA). But a deeper look reveals a collection of skills that continue to be rock solid, which includes 7.3 K’s/9, 1.8 BB’s/9, 42% grounders. A low and unfortunate 61% strand rate was the main reason for his ERA spike. Over his last 30 innings, Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 5/25. Overall he has a BB/K split 35/128 in 150 frames. Despite losing last night, the Phillies are simply the more enthusiastic squad with a huge starting pitching edge here.  

Suffice to say, it’s been an up-and-down season for James Shields. After being traded by the Padres in early June, Shields posted a hideous 11.07 ERA in his first five starts for the White Sox. But in July, it looked like "Big Game James" was back, with a 1.78 ERA in his next five starts. It would be best not to question him about his 17.36 ERA in August though, as we keep cashing tickets by fading him and we’re not about to stop now. Shields’ is a mess. He started walking more batters last year and he’s not been able to right that ship. It’s not helping that he’s falling behind in the count frequently. Shields’ isn’t generating as many swinging strikes as usual, and that’s crushed his K-rate. While he was able to deal with his drop in velocity last year, that’s not been the case in 2016. His fly-ball rate has crept up too and with a big hr/f, it’s not surprising he leads the majors in HRs allowed. The move from Safeco (-9% RH HR) to U.S. Cellular (+14% RH HR) just makes it worse. Shields’ has $42 million left on his contract for the next two years, so he’ll be pitching somewhere. That’s sweet because when he is pitching, he is fade material every time he steps on the mound and that includes this start in late August. 

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