PGA Wagers
Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Posted Wednesday, March 14 at 2:00 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is March 15 at 7:30 AM EST. 

Last Week's Fantasy Results from the Valspar Championship

We went 2-0-1 in our H2H matchups and our horse for the course, Sergio Garcia, finished fourth. It is the third week in a row that our “horse” finished top-5. We’re still looking for our first outright winner of 2018 and this looks like a good field for a “bomb” to break through.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

This Week's Course Preview

We’ve been treated very nicely of late with the chance to watch top quality golf played at some of the finest courses around, with Riviera, PGA National and Copperhead all providing a stern test of ball striking, rather than the grip ‘em, rip ‘em and tear it apart style courses that feature on the Tour elsewhere.

Happily, Bay Hill is the perfect location at which to sign off the Florida Swing. Originally designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee back in 1960, Arnold Palmer actually took over the property in 1976 and it became his pet project until his passing in 2016. The great man was known for his tinkering of the layout but it has only undergone two major overhauls in more than four decades, the latter of which widened the fairways and trimmed trees in 2014. Perhaps it is no surprise to note that the winning scores have increased since, by and large. However, this is still a tough test at a full 7,419 yards for its Par 72, with comprehensive bunkering and water in-play on nine holes. The Bermuda fairways and greens, having been re-seeded a few years ago, are now in pristine condition, but the wind can act as a key source of defense following the thinning of the foliage. In 2017 a whopping 13 of the 18 holes averaged over par!  

What we’re looking for

With a decent bank of form to utilize on tough curses during this Florida Swing, clearly the best strategy to adopt this week is to draft those who have been in fine form lately. Both of the courses at PGA National and Copperhead are far from being a walk in the park – neither is Bay Hill, by all accounts – and with all three played on Bermuda we have an obvious basis for comparison. The key difference is that the players will be taking driver and three-wood off the tee more this week, especially with the Par 5s being so crucial, but since the fairways have been widened, accuracy seems to be less of a concern; indeed, Marc Leishman (last year’s winner) ranked a respectable, if not spectacular, T17 for fairways found 12 months ago. Leishman’s irons were on fire, whether from the short or the long grass, as he raked first for Greens in Regulation. You don’t need to worry about the flat stick so much if you are lasering your approach shots into 10ft.

Like we say, this is a course where Par 5 scoring really is at a premium. On the regulation holes, bogey avoidance is crucial, and as if any extra context was needed, Leishman ranked T14 for Birdies Made and T3 for Bogey Avoidance. Typically great wind players tend to do the business at Bay Hill, with the rollcall of winners including Tiger, Leishman, Jason Day, Vijay Singh and Ernie Els. There have been plenty of other notable performers in the wind, such as Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose, who have finished second here. That may be less of a factor this year given the forecast, but still worth knowing. Florida form, Bermuda putting, Par 5 birdie making and bogey avoiding….there’s not a whole bunch else to focus on this week.  

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Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To win outright:

 

Jason Kokrak 60-1

 

A more-than-respectable T8 at Copperhead last week, Jason Kokrak’s game looks ideally suited to Bay Hill. He’s somebody who typically avoids making big numbers on the Par 4s: the fact he ranks 28th on Tour for Par 4 Scoring Average and 57th for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders is an indicator of that. Here’s a pro that ranks seventh on Tour for Par 5 Birdie or Better; remember, the longer holes are crucial in compiling a winning total at Bay Hill. Given the make-up of his game, it’s perhaps no surprise that Kokrak has two top-10s and a top-20 to his name in just four trips to this Arnold Palmer layout, and he will be looking to repeat that sort of performance at the very minimum this week. Kokrak ranks 7th ON TOUR in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, 22nd in SG: Around-the-Green and 34 th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s been Jason Kokrak has made six cuts in a row and over that span he has two eighth place finishes and a 20th place finish. Dude is hanging around and has to be feeling pretty good about his chances this week. We do too (Risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).

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Collin Morikawa 350-1

 

The 21-year-old from Los Angeles is a junior at the University of California-Berkeley. He's currently fourth in the World Amateur Golf Ranking and second in Golfweek's Sagarin Ranking. Along with 2017 U.S. Amateur runner-up Doug Ghim and former Pac-12 Conference foe Maverick McNealy (from Stanford), Morikawa went 4-0 at the 2017 Walker Cup. In his only career start on the Web.com Tour, he lost in a playoff at the 2016 Air Capital Classic where Ollie Schniederjans prevailed. Morikawa secured his exemption into the field at Bay Hill this week via his Palmer Cup appearance last year. He couldn't ask for a better tune-up, as he's fresh off an individual title and school-record 16-under 197 at the Querencia Cabo Collegiate in Mexico on March 6. Yeah, it’s a shot and yeah, he probably won’t win but we’re after bombs and we would take this kid at 350-1 over Tiger Woods at 6½-1 100% of the time. Besides, in the slight chances that he’s in the mix on Sunday, a nice cash-out option awaits (Risking 0.2 units to win 70 units).

 

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Jamie Lovemark 66-1

 

While he was born and raised in southern California, the Florida Swing has been kinder to him since regaining fully exempt status in 2015-16. Then again, he's been a resident of Jupiter, Florida, for years, so the absence of success here as well would be a surprise. His slate in the Sunshine State includes a T6 and T23 in the last two editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also struts in on the strength of a solo seventh at PGA National and a T16 at Copperhead. With positive measurements in strokes gained: putting in both events, he's risen 32 spots to 42nd overall on TOUR. Put it all together and Bay Hill is at or near the top of the most logical sites for the 29-year-old to capture his maiden title (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).


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Kyle Stanley 110-1

 

This is an overlay that we can’t ignore. For as much as it's important to remember that he was trending for months in advance of his second PGA TOUR victory last summer, he's sustained and slightly improved his position on the world stage since. Up three clicks to 55th in the Official World Golf Ranking since posing for pictures at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm eight months ago, he's returning to the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play for the first time since his debut in 2012. His commitment to the Arnold Palmer Invitational grants one more opportunity to climb even higher before next Monday's live draw for round-robin play next week. A classic ball striker’s test requires a classic ball striker to make hay while the sun shines, and in the past few months Kyle Stanley has been absolutely dialed in with his irons. Six months ago, Stanley ranked second on Tour for GIR, third for Proximity, seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach, and ninth for Par 4 Performance. Stanley finished 17th here last season and if not for a round of 75 on Sunday, he would have finished top-10 but he did post scores of 68 and 69 on Friday and Saturday respectively. A typically polished tee-to-green game at Bay Hill during his resurgence last year and now coming off a T25 at Chapultepec, his fifth top 25 of the season, we can get on board with him here (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units). 

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for the Valspar Championship

 

The quality of talent at this level is getting better every year and there are literally between 45 and 50 golfers every event that have a truly legit chance to win but we can’t bet them all. To pick a winner outright is a big time challenge but the real money in these events is in the head-to-head challenges and that’s where our bread and butter will be earned. We may post daily head-to-heads as well so keep your eye out for those. In the meantime, the H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

Tommy Fleetwood +105 over Rory McIlroy (BET 365)

This bet is also available at Pinnacle (-101) but we get a slightly better price at BET365 and we’ll take it. It’s no secret that McIlroy is out of form and has been for a while. Of course he can get it back at any time but right now, Rory’s goal is just to make the cut and take it from there while Fleetwood has visions of winning.

Fleetwood recovered from an opening 78 to finish T10 in his Bay Hill debut last year. That’s so impressive and he’s better now. Tommy looks as if his first win on American soil is imminent and this could be his weekend. His past eight weeks include a win, a 6th, a 37th, a 4th, and a 14th. Further, over the past 12 weeks, Fleetwood sits 3rd in this field in strokes gained: Tee to Green, 24th in Approach, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, and 9th in Proximity from Greater than 200 Yards (Risking 2 units to win 2.1 units).

 #7004 Justin Rose +114 over Tiger Woods Pinnacle

We’re all about taking advantage of media hypes, overreactions and whatever else we can find that influences a market that is getting a heavy dose of Tiger fed into their brains. Tiger was on the front page of the leaderboard for four days at the Valspar and the networks cashed in. Those same networks and media folks are pumping the Tiger hype through the roof and we could not be happier about it. There is massive interest in golf again and the fact that Tiger is 5½-1 to win this event is not only ridiculous, but it attests to all that hype the media has thrown Tiger’s way. Tiger hasn’t played back-to-back events in a long old time, and we really have to see how his body holds up before getting involved. Let’s not forget that the door was WIDE open last week for Tiger to pull away considering low scores were there for the taking but he failed to do so.

Meanwhile, Justin Rose is a former Orlando native who has always looked comfortable at Bay Hill. In nine visits he has notched four top-10s, including a T2 and T3, plus two other top-20s, so there are no alarms on that front. If we look at the stats, we see that Rose’s approach play has been lacking all season, but he knows Bay Hill like the back of his hand and that familiarity should improve his iron play. Besides which, he ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting on the Bermuda of Copperhead last week, and that’s handy ahead of what will hopefully be a title challenge. Rose was in the mix at the Valspar, lying second at the 54-hole stage, but fell away quite markedly on Sunday. He was suffering from ‘allergies’ apparently, the poor lamb, but the overall picture is one of positivity. Rose is a major champion with 21 titles worldwide; a haul which includes three since October alone. You won’t find many more decorated players in this field than Justin Rose and if Woods beats him, oh well but we know we’re going with the right value play here (Risking 2 units to win 2.28 units).

Jason Day +120 over Tiger Woods (Bet365)

While making two wagers against one golfer is risky, we have to play the value here and therefore have to fade Tiger again. This isn’t a fade on Tiger though, as both Rose and Jason Day are tremendous pros with a great chance to win this event outright. Day won here in 2016 with a 17th and 23rd bookending it so he's got course form of his own. He's played just twice over the past seven weeks, but those finishes were a win and a second-place outing. Day ranks 7th on par 5s and 5th in scrambling, as well as 11th in career Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermudagrass. Jason Day lost it for a while but he’s back better than ever and may find himself the #1 ranked golfer in the world again very soon. That he’s +120 against Tiger is a reflection of all that Tiger hype that we nust try and take advantage of (Risking 2 units to win 2.4 units).   

#7033 Jamie Lovemark -103 over Emiliano Grillo Pinnacle

We previewed Jamie Lovemark above and if we like him to win, we certainly like him to beat Grillo. In fact, we’re happy to fade Grillo for several reasons. Despite having all the potential in the world, as soon as he gets on American soil, he usually clams right up. Grillo absolutely has good course form here, (7th last year, 17th in 2016) which makes him an attractive target this week against Lovemark but trust us when we suggest that Pinnacle is very aware of his good course form and made him an enticing small favorite here. After finishing T8 in the Honda Classic, Grillo took the decision to play the European Tour’s Indian Open this past week at the demonic DLF course in New Delhi. Not even old Arnie himself would have presented a track as heinous as this and the Argentine romped along through 36 holes, and looked to have the title in the bag. However, he faltered quite badly over the weekend, and appeared to be rather frustrated when paired with the slow-playing Shubhankar Sharma on Saturday. We’re not going to ignore that his state of mind after blowing such a great opportunity last week can’t be good. His temperament has come into question before and he’s gone off the rails before too. Dude is good but the timing here is awful and his pedestrian finishes at most PGA events after making the cut doesn’t inspire confidence. We wouldn’t be surprised if he missed the cut altogether either. (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).  

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For Fantasy Players:

 

Horse for the Course is Justin Rose:

 

We previewed him to beat Tiger and we like his chances for a great score. Rose, since 2006, has four top-10 finishes at Bay Hill in nine tries, plus two more top-15 showings. His past eight weeks of action include a 22nd, an 8th, a 37th, and a 5th last week at the Valspar. Over the past 12 weeks of action, Rose ranks 27th tee to green and 11th in scrambling, as well as 19th in the field in proximity from greater than 200 yards. He fits well here.

Others to consider:

Patton Kizzire

Sometimes you back a player on price alone, and so we’re more than happy to get stuck into the 100/1 range on a guy who has already won twice this season! Kizzire plays neat and tidy golf that sees him rank sixth for Greens in Regulation and ninth for Scoring Average, and his two wins have come in the windy surrounds of the Sony Open and the OHL Classic. His last act on the course was a round of 66 at the WGC-Mexico, which propelled him up the leaderboard to T12. Kizzire is a god investment in both DFS and to win outright but we can’t bet them all.

Zach Johnson

In seven PGA TOUR appearances this season, Zach Johnson has finished inside the top-25 on six occasions, and you suspect that consistency will be rewarded soon enough with a run to the business end of a tournament. A player who thrives in ‘windy grinds’, Johnson has won the British Open, the Texas Open (twice) and the Sony Open in the conditions he is likely to experience in Orlando this week. With three top-10s and a T11 at Bay Hill to his name there’s no doubt that this is a layout that suits him.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

The ‘Barn Rat’ has transformed himself into a rather consistent performer in the past year or so, and with a pair of victories under his loosely-fitted belt in the past couple of months alone, he will be full of confidence here. Okay, so those two triumphs – in the World Super 6 and on the Asian Development Tour last week – are evidence that he is happy bullying low quality fields, but he has also done the business against more elite opposition too: finishing T5 at the WGC-Mexico just two weeks ago. There is a high premium on approach play at Bay Hill and Aphibarnrat is one of the European Tour’s best when it comes to GIR, and the wind won’t faze him given that he has won in Scotland and Australia.

TOTAL RISK FOR THIS tournament is 8.83 units and we'll update it when the event is official. 

RESULTS:

Wagers lost:

4 golfers to win @ 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

Jason Day +120 over Tiger Woods = -2 units

Tommy Fleetwood +105 over Rory McIlroy = -2 units

Jamie Lovemark -103 over Emiliano Grillo = -2.06 units

Wagers won

Justin Rose +114 over Tiger Woods = +2.28 units

Therefore 6.14 units in losses -2.28 units in wins = a total loss of 3.86 units for this event

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Our Pick

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Risking 8.83 units - To Win: 0.00)