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Posted Thursday, August 2 at 12:45 PM EST. 

Cutoff time to place bets is 7:30 AM EST at  Pinnacle and 7:30 AM EST at Bet365

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

A three-time host of the PGA Championship, Firestone GC is a great proving ground for those looking to head to Quail Hollow next week and secure a life-affirming victory. It can turn into something of a grind around here, and in 2016 only nine players finished under par in the Bridgestone. That is an extreme example of what Firestone has to offer, but is instructive nonetheless.

It’s a long old Par 70 at 7,400 yards - no wonder Arnold Palmer called it "The Monster" upon first viewing, and while the pair of Par 5s should provide some respite, the second, a 667 yard behemoth, is the longest hole played on tour outside of the majors, and tends to average over 5.00 on the stroke average front as a result. Fairways are narrow and particularly hard to hit, with penal rough sucking up any errant tee shots. There’s a real premium on long but straight hitting here.

The greens, which are Bentgrass in nature but seeded with Poa Annua, can be very hard to hit in dry conditions, and running at around 13 on the stimp, the short grass is pretty darn quick as well. As a long old track, one might expect driving to be a key concern at Firestone, and one would be absolutely correct. Indeed, seven of the first 10 home last year ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Accuracy, so perhaps the key stat this week is an amalgamation of Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

But that is just one part of the puzzle. Finding these greens is tricky and will become even more difficult as they dry out through the weekend. It will come as no surprise to learn that current form heading into this high-quality tournament is another key. DJ, last year’s winner, won the US Open in his prior start and finished third in the Memorial Tournament and fifth in the St. Jude Classic prior to that; the mark of consistency required by a Bridgestone Invitational champion. Indeed, look at the last few winners here: DJ, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy (x2), Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, and Keegan Bradley. There we have a collection of class acts or classic grinders, and we’d expect that trend to continue this week. So, once again, we’re looking for pro’s that are 35-1 or better to win outright, followed by head-to-head-matchups. 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. 

Kyle Stanley 110-1

A fantastic season for Kyle Stanley would be crowned perfectly by a strong showing at the PGA Championship, and this week’s event offers him the perfect tune-up. His win at the Quicken Loans National had been coming – T4 at THE PLAYERS and T6 at Memorial were clear signs of that, and his ball-striking stats this season have been absolutely phenomenal. There’s been a downgrade since, but that’s only natural and we’re not too worried by a missed cut at The Open given that he hasn’t been exposed to Links golf all that much. We fully expect the 29-year-old to return to form this week and he’s simply too good to be offered this big a price when guys like Sergio Garcia and Jason Day are only 30-1. Stanley ranks 1st ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation, 5th ON TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG) Off-the-Tee and 5th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).

Xander Schauffele 125-1

This young man’s game has gone from strength to strength in the past few months, with a T5 return from the US Open clearly a catalyst for the 23-year-old’s almost immediate ascent to golfing manhood. His maiden PGA TOUR title soon followed at the Greenbrier Classic and in his last outing he recorded a more than useful T20 at the Open Championship – we don’t suppose the Californian has played much Links golf! Schauffele has delivered some outstanding tee-to-green stats this season and with a victory on Bentgrass to his name we don’t need to worry about his abilities with the putter. Xander Schauffele odds to win will very likely be listed in the top 15-20 names every time he plays at some point in the near future alongside guys like Jason Day, Ricky Fowler, Adam Scott, Justin Rose and others but first, he’s going to have to win some more events. He’s good enough to do so but the right play would be to buy him now because he’s so undervalued (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Russell Henley 80-1

Since winning the Houston Open earlier in the year, Henley’s form has held up pretty well, and we’re certainly sweet on a player whose major appearances since have yielded 11-27-37 in The Masters, US Open, and British Open respectively. A T5 at the Greenbrier Classic in-between confirms the theory that Henley is hot right now, and that’s handy given he’s seems to like Firestone with two top-30 returns in his three visits. He heads to Ohio as a bona fide PGA TOUR winner, and for a guy as good as this off the tee (ranking tenth for Total Driving) the omens are very strong indeed. We can certainly get on board with proven talents who check all of the boxes. The combination of his ball-striking and hot putting is too tempting to ignore. (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Zach Johnson 66-1

If the weather does become a little fruity on Thursday and Friday like it is reported to, then Firestone could become a real grind, and at this point hitting fairways and sensible course management will be the name of the game. In this scenario, few excel quite like Zach Johnson, whose season was kick-started with a fine showing at his favorite John Deere Classic. He followed that with T14 at the Open Championship, which included a sublime round of 66 while all else around him floundered. He's acknowledged that he knows that the reason he hasn't made more noise this year is due to inconsistent putting, but the familiar greens at TPC Deere Run proved reliable en route to a share of fifth place. He validated with a T14 at Royal Birkdale and now gets Firestone, where he's rung up four top 10s among nine top 25s in 13 appearances (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).

Mackenzie Hughes 300-1

Despite the level of difficulty that Firestone presents, the quality of the competition and the fact that he's making his tournament debut, there's an argument that the PGA TOUR rookie is relieved that the RBC Canadian Open is behind him. After all, it's his national championship. The 26-year-old from Ontario finished with but a share of 32nd place but he paced 17 Canadians in the field at Glen Abbey. After a rough patch into the spring, he's come around for seven cuts made in eight starts, including in each of his last five. Three during the uptick were top 20s, including a T16 at the TOUR's pressure-packed flagship stop at TPC Sawgrass. Hughes is one of the longest shots on the board but in no way should he be priced in the same range as some of the others. Call this a throwaway bet if you like but there is great value here on a player that is this good so hopefully, he’ll get our hearts beating a little faster on Sunday (Risking 0.2 units to win 60 units).

Head-to-head Matchups for The Bridgestone Invitational

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

Feature matchup of the week:

#7012 R. Fowler +107 over R. McIlroy

Rory’s stock is high after an excellent showing at the British Open but we’re not going to allow that one event to influence us. Let us remind you that he was +4 after the first five holes at Birkdale and was in and out of trouble all four days. We want to see several good events in succession before we’ll back off fading him. In other words, we’re not convinced he’s over his slump just yet. If he’s not out of his slump, Ricky should slay him and if he is out of his funk, Ricky should still beat him.

Classy ball-strikers who are solid off the tee tend to enjoy themselves at Firestone, and Fowler’s all-round game should suit the set-up. History dictates as such, with Fowler recording four top-10s in his last six visits here, including T10 in his last pair of trips and T2 back in 2011. He ranks third on tour for Total Driving, 11th for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third for SG: Putting, so how could we wish for a better all-round talent? This is a true bargain of a price (and matchup) and we’re not going to miss it (Risking 2 units to win 2.08 units).

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 #7070 X. Schauffele +124 over F. Molinari

We wrote all about Xander Schauffele above and so if we like his chances for a strong event, we have to like his chances to beat 34-year-old Francseco Molinari. In fact, one might even wonder of Molinari is dealing with an injury or discomfort. He missed the cut at the Masters back in April. He then made the cut in four straight events including a T6 at the Players Championship but he has missed the cut in his last two events. At the US Open in mid-June, Molinari missed the cut and did not play again until the British Open more than a month later and missed the cut there too. When he’s on, Molinari can navigate through any course but something appears to be off for him these days, especially at difficult courses like the one he’ll be facing here (Risking 1 unit to win 1.14 units).

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#7066 R. Henley -107 over Bubba Watson

Again, we’re on Henley to win so we therefore have to like his chances to finish ahead of Bubba Watson. Watson has been battling both his mind and his game all season long. His -9 last week at the Canadian Open is no big deal when you consider how many pros were closer to -20 than -10. Watson has to be feeling fatigued too, as he’s only missed one event since the US Open in mid-June. Since the Masters in which he missed the cut at +8, Bubba has shot +7, +4, +2, +3, and +1 in five of 10 events since. He ranks 109th ON TOUR in driving accuracy and if you are missing the fairways at this course, doom is not far behind (risking 1.07 units to win 1).  

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Top Canadian

MacKenzie Hughes +120 over Adam Hadwin Bet365

This wager is available at BET365 and there are only two players in the field so it is essentially a heads-up-matchup. Since his spectacular opening to the calendar year, Adam Hadwin’s game has regressed to the level of unexplainable. He's already exempt into the final major and these WGC events, all for the first time – so there's an element of curiosity as he adjusts to his new schedule. Some safety nets are stronger than others but right now, Hadwin no longer carries that with him. Plain and simple, we need to be impressed that he's going to modify his game for tighter tracks before hopping aboard. Haswin has been godawful for weeks while Hughes’ game continues to get better (risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units).

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Wagers won:

 #7070 X. Schauffele +124 over F. Molinari = +1.24 units

Wagers lost:

4 golfers to win outright = - 0.8 units

MacKenzie Hughes +120 over Adam Hadwin = -1 unit

#7066 R. Henley -107 over Bubba Watson = -1.07 units

#7012 R. Fowler +107 over R. McIlroy = -2 units

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 Therefore 4.87 units (losses) - 1.24 units = a net loss for this event of 3.73 units 

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