BEST LINES: BEST LINES: Pinnacle Bet365  SportsInteraction  5DIMES

Posted Thursday, July 27 at 12:20 AM EST. 

Cutoff time to place bets is 8:00 AM EST at  Pinnacle and 7:10 AM EST at Bet365

Canadian Open

Glen Abbey has hosted more Canadian Opens than any other course – 28 in all, and it used to be the main venue until the Royal Canadian Golf Association decided to roll out a rotating host policy. But we’re back at Glen Abbey, as we were in 2013 and 2015-16, and the overriding impression is that this is a track the players enjoy coming back to.

Measuring 7,252 yards, finally the players have a Par 72 to sink their teeth into after a glut of Par 70s in the past few weeks. The course features numerous elevation changes with the back nine including the famous ‘Valley Holes – such as the 11th, whose tee shot is played onto a fairway some 60 yards below, and then the three holes from 14 through 16, which are played along Sixteen Mile Creek.

The fairways are generally considered to be a forgiving width, with smallish, fast-ish Bentgrass greens – protected by deep bunkers - offering the track’s main protection from scoring. This is a driver-heavy course featuring four Par 5s, three of which come in the last six holes played. Conditions tend to dictate how easy scoring is. With small, shallow greens, the players will be hoping for rain to soften the surface, otherwise landing on the dancefloor – and staying there – becomes difficult in drier conditions. In 2016, Jason Day, who won here in 2015 and would finish T14 a year later, said his theory of beating the fast set-up was to drive the ball as far as possible, with a wedge shot easier to control than a longer distance iron. But playing out of the rough is regarded as a no-no as well.

On the back of a really tough slog at times over at Royal Birkdale for The Open Championship, the majority of those involved have a choice between heading back to the U.S. to enjoy some rest and recuperation, or chuck the bag onto a flight to Canada to try their luck there. For those who played in the Barbasol there is an advantage to be had of less travel and zero jetlag.

So let’s take a quick look at the 2016 Canadian Open and those performed best. There were 21 players who finished inside the top 20 (including ties), and the week prior to the event:

Played in The Open: 8 (3 finished in the top 25 at Troon, 1 in the top 50, 2 in the top 60 and 2 missed the cut).

Played the Barbasol Championship: 11 (2 finished in the top 5 there, 3 in the top 25, 3 in the top 50, 2 in the top 60 and 1 missed the cut).

So our conclusion might be that form at the Barbasol is equally, if not more important than showing form at The Open, which naturally is a whole different style of golf. Of those who finished in the top 25 at the British Open before going top 20 at the Canadian, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker have both won this tournament before and Dustin Johnson can play good golf anywhere, any time.

So, our takeaway is that we don’t necessarily have to steer clear of those jetting in from Liverpool, but perhaps the guys who played well at the Barbasol Championship last week are worth more than just a second look. Incidentally, the winner receives an automatic invite to The Masters, so there’s plenty up for grabs for players of all statures and it’s also worth noting that a Canadian hasn’t won this event since 1954.

Scores have been pretty low here in recent years, but if the small greens firm up – as they are likely too given the hot weather currently governing the area – it’s a real task getting your ball in close proximity to the flag. There are a few different ways to tame this stretch and the field is loaded with talent. So, the good news for us is that this event has every chance of serving up a long odds winner. Last year, we had Jonathan Vegas at 110-1 and he rewarded us by winning it. Hopefully, lighting will strike twice with one of the following pros. 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. 

Gary Woodland 66-1

There is every suggestion that a big week is on the horizon for Gary Woodland, and we’re hoping it’s this week at a course that should suit him. His reputation for long hitting off the tee precedes him, but actually Woodland’s game is better than being a mere basher, as he actually ranks 22nd for Total Driving and 13th for Greens in Regulation this term. Excellent from tee-to-green at the Greenbrier Classic, Woodland made the cut at The Open Championship – no mean feat in those conditions on Thursday and Friday, and his long, straight game looks ideally placed for a tilt at the title in Canada. Woodland ranks 11th ON TOUR for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, 13th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 22 nd ON TOUR in Total Driving. We played him last week at the Open and we’re sticking with him.

Rory Sabbatini 125-1

After a couple of outstanding weeks tee-to-green at the Greenbrier (T14) and John Deere Classic (T19), Sabbatini will have been devastated not to go better than T55 at the Barbasol, as he really should have banked something much better in that weak field. However, the South African fired rounds of 66 and 62 in that effort, so we’re not going to abandon hope on him just yet. He showed up well when finishing T11 at Glen Abbey back in 2015, and he ranks inside the top 40 players on the PGA TOUR for both Total Driving (30th) and Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders (32nd). We’re looking for pros that are under the radar after Barbasol and Sabbatini fits the bill (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Keegan Bradley 60-1

With his exceptional talent off the tee, Keegan is the kind of player who really should be winning tournaments. He is a three-time PGA TOUR champion, but hasn’t finished inside the top-three of an event since 2014. If that sounds like a burn on Bradley then it is. For a player ranking first on tour for Total Driving, 30th for Greens in Regulation, 40th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 4th for Par 4: Birdie or Better Leaders, there really is no reason why he doesn’t win. Perhaps it’s a psychological thing but he’s a threat and we’re willing to keep faith in a player who has a pair of top-10 finishes to his name in his last three starts (T8 at the Travelers, T5 at the Quicken Loans) and for whom seven of his last nine rounds have been 70 or lower. Bradley has been off since July 6 and the break hopefully served him well. Keegan has stacked up a career's worth of accomplishments in just a few years on tour and has consistently been near the top in the PGA standings. He’s worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 12).

Kelly Kraft 110-1

Kelly Kraft is just so talented that he must be played until he inevitably takes home some hardware. He checks so many boxes weekly that he’s always coming up on our radar. Kraft had a T5 in his John Deere debut last year and a also had a T5 at this year’s Greenbrier in early July but the 28-year-old has been anything but consistent in his sophomore season. If you make room, you do so riding his confidence of leading the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green at The Old White TPC (Greenbrier). He also co-led in fairways hit and ranked T9 in greens in regulation and seventh in proximity to the hole. Kraft is on fire in every other facet of his game but putting and if that heats up, he could do some serious damage here (Risking 0.2 units to win 2).

===================================

Head-to-head Matchups for The Canadian Open 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

Head-to-head Matchups:

Feature matchup of the week:

#7029 D. Lingmerth -106 over G. Murray

Let's not forget about David Lingmerth. He connected on nine paydays, six of which going for a top 25, before missing the cut at the Scottish Open and then took last week off. As one of the PGA TOUR's best putters, he'll need the wand to remain warm but he's connected on Glen Abbey's greens before. In his only prior trip, he tied for 12th in 2013, ranking sixth in birdie-or-better percentage and T3 in par-5 scoring. The real deal here, however, is fading Murray, who had breakthrough victory at the Barbasol Championship on Sunday. With his job no longer in danger and the fact that he's been on the road the last five weeks (to mixed results), it’s even surprising that he’s playing this week. With his life forever changed and being fully exempt through 2018-19, the emotional letdown that often follows a pro’s maiden victory is present (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

------------------------------------------------

The other angle we’re playing here is backing players that were not overseas last week that are matched up against players that played at the difficult conditions at Royal Birkdale. Not only do those players have to overcome jet lag but it was an exhausting four days with the weather taking several different turns. This is an opportunity to cash on in so we’ll play the following head-to-head matchups:

Chad Campbell -110 over B. Martin (Risking 1.1 units to win 1). Bet365

#7019 G. DeLaet over JB Holmes (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).   

#7012 Patrick Cantlay +100 over B. Watson (Risking 1 unit to win 1). 

========================================================

RESULTS:

Wagers lost

4 golfers to win outroght @ 0,2 units each = -0.8 units

#7019 G. DeLaet over JB Holmes (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) = -1.05 units

#7012 Patrick Cantlay +100 over B. Watson (Risking 1 unit to win 1) = -1 unit 

Wagers won

#7029 D. Lingmerth -106 over G. Murray (2.12 units to win 2) = +2 units

Chad Campbell -110 over B. Martin (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) + =1 unit

Therefore: 3 units in wins - 2.85 units = a total net profit for this event of 0.15 units.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.