Posted Wednesday, May 31 at 11:00 AM EST 

Cutoff time to place bets is THURSDAY at 8:00 AM EST at Pinnacle and 6:30 AM EST at Bet365

The Memorial 

This week the Tour heads to Dublin, Ohio, which is the birthplace of Jack Nicklaus. He designed this week’s host course, Muirfield Village, the ongoing venue for the Memorial Tournament. For the third week running, the emphasis will be on accuracy over power as the players take on Jack Nicklaus’ pride and joy, the Muirfield Village Golf Club. Water is in play on 11 holes, and penal rough and deep bunkers add to the challenge. It is a tameable test, as McGirt’s winning mark of -15 testifies, but it is a test nonetheless.

At 7,392 yards for its Par 72 we might call Muirfield an inclusive track, in that anybody can win here. The roll call of former winners includes Matt Kuchar, David Lingmerth, and Steve Stricker; none of whom is the longest off the tee. The greens are smaller than average and feature Bentgrass greens. Nicklaus is forever tweaking the course, and his latest renovations for 2017 include a new tee box on the 18th – extending the Par 4 to 484 yards. The 16th and 17th will now be guarded by a pond located front and left of the green and a new set of fairway bunkers respectively.

It’s not the most exciting of statements, but William McGirt’s title winning run last year was based on doing everything quite well and minimizing his mistakes. The stroke gained stats confirm that. He earned +1.812 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – a relatively low figure – and +1.163 on approach. The rest were all under 1.00! McGirt ranked just 50th for Driving Distance and T39 for Driving Accuracy, which tells its own tale, and so we’re looking at players who can convert in the second half of holes. That means Greens in Regulation and Scrambling, and so this has to be the focus with these smaller-than-average greens. 

Thus, once again, we’re not interested in any golfers under 30-1. There are too many live bombs to be focusing in on the chalk so hopefully, one or more of our choices will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday. 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:

Brendan Steele 70-1 

The Safeway Open winner ticks many boxes this week, not least his outstanding scrambling game. That enables him to recover from tricky situations. Steele ranks second on tour for Bogey Avoidance, which enables him to play well at tougher tracks: a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship last time out is a testament to that. Steele should go under the radar this week given his indifferent record at Muirfield Village – 20-63-MC-MC-62-51 – but lest we forget he is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Some other key stats include his 13th ranking ON TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Tee-to-Green and his 18th ranking ON TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green. Steele is underpriced and could certainly make his presence felt here (Risking 0.2 units to win 14) 

Head-to-head Matchup

#7033 B. Steele +107 over B. Haas (Risking 1 units to win 1.07 units). 

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Emiliano Grillo 66-1

The Argentine is putting really nicely at the moment and that is usually the Achilles Heel of a player who really excels from tee-to-green. That’s usually the sign that a strong performance is just around the corner and that is backed by the knowledge that Grillo finished T11 here on debut 12 months ago. The 2017 campaign has been one where a number of newcomers have shown their teeth, and while Grillo has been around for a bit longer than those guys, now is the time for him to turn potential into silverware. He looked very comfortable here last year and has one missed cut across 10 starts this year. He’s also in the top 50 ON TOUR in stokes gained: Off the Tee (41st), Approaching the Green (30th) and Tee to Green (24th) (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units) 

Head-to-head Matchup

#7029 E. Grillo -131 over C. Schwartzel (Risking 1.31 units to win 1 unit). 

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Brian Harman 75-1 

After taking down the Wells Fargo Championship for his maiden tour win, Harman suffered the traditional regression of first-time winners in his next start with a T53 at THE PLAYERS Championship. However, the 30-year-old returned pretty quickly to form with a T7 at Colonial, a showing which featured three rounds in the 60s and a Sunday best of 65. After three missed cuts at Muirfield Village, Harman finally cracked the code here 12 months ago with a T33, and it may be worth mentioning that McGirt’s best prior to his win at the course was T37. Harman has plenty of motivation here too. His T-7 finish at Colonial last week after a final-round of 65 left Harman achingly short of an exemption into The BritishOpen. Harman moved from No. 54 to No. 51 but needed to crack the top 50 in order to earn a spot at Royal Birkdale. Instead, he ended up 0.0095 points behind William McGirt, who held onto the 50th spot and was already otherwise exempt for The Open. A strong outing here punches his ticket and he’s too determined and focused not to give it his best shot. (Risking 0.2 units to win 15 units) 

Head-to-head Matchup

#7036 B. Harman +101 over P. Perez (Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units) 

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Patrick Cantlay 50-1

Pinnacle Sports has Webb Simpson at -138 over Patrick Cantlay in head to head match-ups. That’s not so interesting but what is interesting is that every book, including Pinnacle has Cantlay a smaller price than Simpson to win this event outright. Webb Simpson just might be fool’s gold this week because he’s been seen at or near the top of the leaderboard quite frequently as of late. He’s very likely going to be a popular DFS choice and it’s hard to argue going against him but a frustrated pro that managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory not once but twice recently may very well crash here just before the U.S. Open. That prompts us to play Cantlay. This is kind of cheating considering Cantlay’s recent run, but he’s still only No. 126 in the OWGR. Since easing his way back into competition in February, he's picked his spots and he's picked them well. This is why he demands attention everywhere, including his first visit to Muirfield Village. The 25-year-old holdover rookie hasn't missed a cut in his six starts and sits comfortably at 50th in the FedExCup standings with a runner-up finish at Copperhead and a T3 at Harbour Town. He last competed at TPC Sawgrass where he placed T22 despite a 77 in the finale. If he had enough rounds to officially qualify, he'd rank 37th in greens hit, seventh in strokes gained: putting, 23rd in birdie-or-better percentage and 11th in adjusted scoring. Muirfield Village should fit his precision game perfectly. (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units). 

Head-to-head Matchup

#7023 P. Cantlay +123 over W. Simpson (Risking 1 unit to win 1.23 units) 

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Ollie Schniederjans 90-1

It’s actually pretty remarkable that Schniederjans is a PGA TOUR rookie. He's 13-for-18 with four top 10s and ranks 44th in the FedExCup standings. Just 23 years of age, well, at least for another two weeks – his birthday is June 15 – the Georgia Tech product has feasted in the analytics that portend success at Muirfield Village where he's making his debut. He's currently T20 in proximity to the hole, 25th in strokes gained: approach-the-green, 31st in strokes gained: tee-to-green and T14 in par-5 scoring. Put everything together and he's 32nd in adjusted scoring. That he’s 90-1 makes him an instant play because he’s almost always right in the mix. (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

Head-to-head Matchup

#7049 O. Schniederjans +116 over C. Hoffman (Risking 1 unit to win 1.16 units) 

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For Fantasy Players

We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is Jordan Spieth. There was a sense at Colonial that Spieth was nearing his best form. He ranked first for Putting Average – always a decent indicator of how well he is playing, and his four rounds 70-68-68-65 show a genuine upturn in progress. Spieth finished T57 here 12 months ago but that came in the wake of his Masters meltdown and subsequent triumph at Byron Nelson. In 2014 he was T3 here and that’s presumably a more accurate indication of his liking for this track. Spieth’s tee-to-green game has been excellent this season, and with his putting coming back to the boil, it’s a heady recipe for success. Some Key stats are SG: Approach-the-Green – 2nd, SG: Total – 6th, SG: Tee-to-Green -12th. If he hits the fairways with regularity this week, he may run away. 

Other DFS worth considering:

Keegan Bradley. Has slid to 109th in the World Ranking and hasn’t had a top 10 since Torrey Pines (Farmers, T-4), but seems to find something in Columbus. Was T-8 in each of the last two years here. 

Peter Uihlein. He’s healthy this year and his results have been promising. This former U.S. Amateur champion has a ton of talent and it can show up at any time in the U.S.

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Wagers lost:

5 golfers to win outright at 0.2 units each = - 1 unit

B. Steele +107 over B. Haas = -1 unit

E. Grillo -131 over C. Schwartzel = 1.31 units

B. Harman +101 over P. Perez = -1 unit

O. Schniederjans +116 over C. Hoffman = -1 unit

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Wagers won

P. Cantlay +123 over W. Simpson = +1.23 units

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Therefore....5.31 units - 1.23 units = a net loss of 4.08 units for this event. 

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