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Posted Wed, May 17 at 9:50 AM EST 

Cutoff time to place bets is THURSDAY at 9:00 AM EST at Pinnacle and 8:00 AM EST at Bet365

AT&T Byron Nelson

Just occasionally, this beautiful game of golf has a habit of surprising us. THE PLAYERS Championship, played at the terrifically tough TPC Sawgrass, is commonly referred to as the unofficial fifth major, such is the heritage and the complexity of lifting the trophy. We, like most, suspected that one or more of the world’s finest players would be on the first page of the leaderboard so it was more-than-slightly eyebrow raising to see a Sunday shootout between Si-Woo Kim, Ian Poulter, and Louis Oosthuizen unfold and none of the top players even close. 

It’s always sad to wave the iconic TPC Sawgrass goodbye, especially when it is followed by the *whisper it* rather underwhelming TPC Four Seasons. The players are on record as saying this is one of their least favorite courses on Tour, and as such it is perhaps no surprise to learn that it will be replaced as AT&T Byron Nelson host venue from 2019 onwards. This is the last time that TPC Four Seasons will host this event after a 35 year run – next year it will move to Trinity Forest GC in Dallas.

A Par 70 track at 7,166 yards, TPC Four Seasons was initially designed by Jay Morrish and Byron Nelson before a full overhaul in 2007 courtesy of D.A. Weibring and Steve Wolford. The Bentgrass greens are large, undulating and run at an ordinary 11 on the stimpmeter, while the redesign a decade ago brought into play plenty more water features. Given its short yardage, TPC Four Seasons is renowned for being a ‘less than driver’ course, with the average drive length 12 months ago a paltry (by modern standards) 280.6 yards. The fairways are of an average width and are Bermudagrass in construction.

The numbers produced here in the past suggest we are in for an all-round ball strikers test. Unusually for TPC Four Seasons, giving the ball a whack off the tee was crucial: Sergio Garcia (last year’s winner) ranked T4 for this metric, while the trio ahead of him – Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Broos Koepka – finished T12, T12 and second respectively.  So giving the ball a bunt will be important this week, especially with strong winds aiding and destroying in equal measure. Garcia only found 57.14% of fairways for a Driving Accuracy rank of T43, which would suggest his scrambling was exceptional. It had to be, because his Putting Average rating of 41st is nothing to write home about.  So strong approach play and scrambling will be important in blustery Irving, as will giving it some humpty from the tee. Lastly, we’re looking for guys that play the Par 5s well.  There’s only two of them in this Par 70 stretch of course, but Garcia played these at -6, which almost half his final score. 

Once again, we’re not looking at anything under 40-1. We’re looking for bombs that cash big for a small wager. There are several longshots hovering around the leaderboard almost every week it seems and hopefully one or more of our choices will be in the mix again on Sunday, 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:

Bud Cauley 40-1

Cauley is a guy whose first PGA TOUR title is coming sooner or later. The 27-year-old has 16 top-10 finishes to his name already, and one of those came here 12 months ago when he tied for fourth. Remarkably, three of those other top-10s have come in his last trio of starts: T9 at the RBC Heritage, T10 at the Texas Open, and T5 at the Zurich Classic. How’s that for a converging trend? You won’t find many better players on the approach from 125-175 yards, and if that short stick can get dialed in, he’s a major threat here at a pretty decent price. Cauley ranks 4th ON TOUR in Approaches from 150-175 Yards, 12th ON TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Approach-the-Green and 44th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. For all you DFS players, Cauley is very undervalued here and should be in your lineup (risking 0.2 units to win 8 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

#7021 B. Cauley +114 over B. Snedeker (Risking 1 unit). 

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Seung-Yul Noh 80-1

His birthday is May 29, but it's still strange to accept that he'll turn just 26 years of age given that he's in his sixth year with a PGA TOUR card. With fellow Korean, Si-Woo Kim, winning a rather prestigious trophy last week, you wonder if his fellow countrymen, such as the in-form Noh, will be inspired accordingly? Noh will be making his fourth appearance here at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s the kind of short-game artist who's trending to surprise on a course that suggests that the elements of ball-striking matter more. At last week's PLAYERS, he led the field in putts per greens in regulation en route to a share of 22nd place. It established a personal best in what was also his fourth appearance at TPC Sawgrass. The week prior, he logged a season-best T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship, ranking second in scrambling for the week and fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Again, this is a player in white hot form at the moment and with all-round game from tee to green in very good shape, he is worth a wager to be sure (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

#7037 SY. Noh +117 over H. Swafford (Risking 1 unit). 

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Ryan Palmer 50-1

There are a number of Texan specialists out there on the PGA TOUR, and Ryan Palmer has to be firmly classified as such, not surprising given that he is born and bred here. His last three starts prior to THE PLAYERS Championship ended with a T11 at the RBC Heritage, T6 at the Texas Open and solo fourth (you know what we mean) at the team-based Zurich Classic, and those follow a T3 return from another Texan jaunt, the Dean & Deluca Invitational, a year ago. Palmer is a long hitter who excels with a medium iron in his hand, and if he lives up to his ‘Par 5 killer’ billing (ranking 16th on tour for Par 5s) – while playing the Par 4s sensibly – then he could have another lofty finish to his name (risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).

Head-to-head matchup (72-hole betting) Bet365

Palmer +105 over Leishman (Risking 1 unit). 

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Robby Shelton 175-1

Shelton continues to bide his time until the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada commences in June. He's done all right in a couple of starts in the big leagues since medaling at Canada's qualifying school in April. He then chased it with a T16 at TPC San Antonio and a T52 at Eagle Point. Shelton is playing on a sponsor exemption this week in Dallas. 

Shelton’s ball-striking is tremendous. Former Walker Cup teammate Lee McCoy nicknamed Shelton “Xbox” because “he makes the swing look so easy.” Watching Shelton on the range is indeed like watching a video game. He’s a name that we’re watching closely now and will put on our list of talented up and comers. He likely won’t win here but at this price he’s worth a wager and he’s also worth your while in DFS because he’s cheap. Therefore, we’ll invest with confidence before the expectations rise and the sale ends. Man, is this kid good (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units). 

Head-to-head matchup:

There are no head-to-head match-ups for Shelton 

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Billy Hurley III 125-1

There are some players who, as we know, perform better on some surfaces more than they do others, and so when we look at Billy Hurley’s seasonal form, we must take into consideration this is a guy who loves putting on Bentgrass. He’s an excellent value pick too thanks to his consistency: BHIII has made 11 cuts from 16 starts, with six of those being top-30s. The picks are clearly the T15 at Shriners and T8 at the Wells Fargo just a couple of weeks ago. Three rounds of par or better at THE PLAYERS confirms that Hurley is striking the ball rather nicely at present, and for a player whose reasonable return at Four Seasons reads 41-MC-16 that’s good enough for us to pull the trigger. He has some nice metrics to bring with him to this event also that includes SG: Putting: 27th, Total Birdies: 36th and SG: Approach the Green: 42nd. At these odds, you could do a lot worse (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

#7042 B. Hurley III -120 over B. Horschel Leishman (Risking 1.2 units to win 1). 

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FEATURED head-to-head matchup (72-hole Match-Betting) Bet365

Byeong Hun An -120 over Ian Poulter

Hun An is among the leaders in strokes gained -off-the-tee and strokes gained -tee-to-green at 21st in both. That quantifies his muscle and aggressive eye. An is coming off a T8 at Eagle Point in last start. Not only is Hun An the superior golfer in this head-to-head but this is such a great spot to fade Ian Poulter. 

Post-PLAYERS drama aside, Poulter’s two-way T2 opened up several doors, so in that context, it was mission accomplished. The optimist will think that he makes this week's start on house money and riding the euphoria of last week's success, but we see it as a huge letdown week, as Poulter can now let out a sigh of relief. What’s more, he's missed the cut in his last two trips to TPC Four Seasons, which were seven years apart to boot. If he makes the cut, we’ll be shocked and if he beats Hun An, we’ll be double shocked (Risking 2.4 units to win 2). 

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WAGERS LOST

5 golfers at 0.2 units each = 1 unit

Palmer +105 over Leishman (Risking 1 unit) = -1 unit

#7042 B. Hurley III -120 over B. Horschel Leishman (Risking 1.2 units to win 1) + 1.2 units

WAGERS WON

#7021 B. Cauley +114 over B. Snedeker (Risking 1 unit) = +114 units

#7037 SY. Noh +117 over H. Swafford (Risking 1 unit) = +117 units

Byeong Hun An -120 over Ian Poulter (risking 2.4 units to win 2) + +2 units

Therefore:

4.31 units (wins)  - 3.2 units in losses = a NET PRFOIT of 1.11 units for this event. 

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