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Posted Wed, May 3 at 2:00 PM EST 

Cutoff time to place bets is THURSDAY is at 9:00 AM EST at Pinnacle and 6:50 AM EST at Bet365

The Wells Fargo Championship

This year’s Wells Fargo will be played at a one-off substitute course, Eagle Point, rather than the usual host Quail Hollow, which is well underway with renovation work ahead of the PGA Championship. Little is known about Eagle Point Golf Club; which opened in 2011, as it is yet to host a competitive tournament. Based in Wilmington, North Carolina, Eagle Point measures around 7,400 yards – long in these windy conditions, with Bentgrass greens, gentle contours, and tree-lined fairways, with some holes offering a particularly difficult challenge: the Par 5 fourth measures 640 yards, for instance. Some photos available online suggest that many of the greens are tiered in nature with some severe run-off areas, so accurate iron/wedge play will presumably be essential. Most intriguing for TV viewers could be the 18th hole, a 580-yard Par 5, some players will be able to make the green in two; although the putting surface is flanked by a pond along its right and back sides – perfect for some Sunday evening drama.

In truth, we have very little to go on this week in that Eagle Point has never hosted a Tour-level event in the past. We’re looking for players proficient on Bentgrass greens and in windy conditions, and any previous form in Carolina – North or South – is welcome. Other than that, we’re relying on the views of the players to help identify areas of interest. “It’s a great golf course and fun to play,” so said Harris English, who went on a scouting mission to Eagle Point with Hudson Swafford, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire recently. “There’s not a blade of grass out of place. It made me want to stay longer than two days.” The likes of Webb Simpson and Bill Haas are known members of the course, while Carl Pettersson – fresh from a top-20 at the Texas Open – holds the course record of 62 at Eagle Point. In tournaments like this, a little course knowledge is generally better than none at all.

Lastly, with the PGA TOUR season in full swing and one major already under our belt, perhaps our most significant statistic is the fact that 40% of our total picks have finished in the Top 25 (50/112) and 75% (84/112) have made the cut. Hopefully, one or more of the names below will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday. 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:

Webb Simpson 33-1 Pinnacle 

Another North Carolinian, Simpson has been practicing at Eagle Point since Friday according to his Twitter so he’ll be nicely in touch by Thursday’s first tee. Playing on home soil seems to suit the 2012 US Open champion well. He led the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship after 54 holes and the 2015 edition after 36, so clearly he doesn’t feel the pressure of playing in front of a partisan crowd. Simpson’s form has been up and down since his second place finish at the Phoenix Open, with three missed cuts in seven starts but, helpfully, an excellent T11 at RBC Heritage last time out signaled a return to his usual outstanding ball striking. Here’s a little insider information: According to the website myrtlebeachonline.com, Simpson has been a member at Eagle Point for more than a decade. He ranks 5th on TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Approach-the-Green, 18th in SG Tee-to-Green and 36th on TOUR in Scoring Average (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).

Head-to-head matchup

7018 W. Simpson +102 over D. Berger (risking 1 unit).

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Hudson Swafford 66-1

Swafford joined Harris English, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire on a scouting mission to Eagle Point earlier in the season, and that suggests he is ready to launch an assault on another PGA TOUR event. A winner earlier this year at the CareerBuilder Challenge, the 29-year-old has since followed up with top 10s at the Arnold Palmer and the Houston Open, and a round of 65 alongside partner English was a nice way to sign off at the Zurich Classic. Not somebody lacking in confidence, Swafford is capable of majorly outperforming his odds to win here. He ranks 12th on TOUR in Total Driving, 29th on TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 30th on TOUR in Total Driving. At 66-1, you could do a lot worse (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).

Head-to-head matchup

7032 H. Swafford +102 over M. Laird (risking 1 unit).

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Alex Noren 75-1

It’s easy to forget that Noren is ranked 12th in the world according to the OWGR, and it’s well-deserved too in a career that features eight European Tour titles. The Swede has a history of playing particularly well in windy conditions, including wins at Links-style settings at the British Masters, Scottish Open and the European Masters.  All in all, he landed an incredible four titles in 2016. He missed the cut at The Masters but that followed a quarter-final berth at the World Matchplay, so there is enough form in place to suggest that Noren can deliver one of his best performances on US soil. Some of his key stats (European Tour) are Greens in Regulation: 78.47%, Driving Distance: 289.13 yards and Average Putts per Round: 30.13 (risking 0.2 units to win 15 units).

Head-to-head matchup

7032 A. Noren +121 over L. Glover (risking 1 unit).

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Brian Harman 90-1

Harman is on a list of ‘scouts’ who visited Eagle Point a few weeks ago, and for a player who is rounding up to some nice form that’s a handy angle. His last four starts read T13-MC-T9-T14, and while we’re happy enough to overlook the last number at the team-based Zurich Classic, his T9 at the RBC Heritage – played in windy South Carolina – cannot be missed. A brilliant putter who comes alive on and around the green, if Harman performs off the tee this week, he should create plenty of chances to birdie up and give us a run for our money (risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

Head-to-head matchup

#7040 B. Harman -124 over S. Kjeldsen (Risking 1.24 units to win 1). 

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Byeong Hun An 90-1

We’ve backed this Korean in this column a few times this season, and he’s someone who appears to be worth persevering with. Huge off the tee, An also possesses a lovely touch around the green (37th for SG: Approach-the-Green), and if he could get his putter going, he really would be some player. Perhaps the switch from Bermuda to Bentgrass will kick-start that putter of his. An is unique in that he can strike at any time. It is not unusual to see him shoot 10 over one week and 10 under and that’s why you can never count him out entirely or put too much emphasis on his week to week game. He’s talented to be sure and any player that can finish T33 at The Masters deserves to be respected in this thin field (risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

Head-to-head matchup

#7041 Byeong Hun An over J. Furyk (Risking -1.06 units to win 1). 6.44

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For Fantasy Players:

We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse has to be Dustin Johnson. If Johnson is playing against a field featuring no other top-10 players from the OWGR, you get him in your lineup.  He is returning to play four weeks after missing The Masters because of an accident and at that point was riding a three match winning streak; something that isn’t common place in the world of golf. Although his TOUR-best driving distance (316.2 yards per) would have aided him more on the length of Quail Hollow, he will still be able to take advantage this week. He also ranks best in greens in regulation (75.25%) and total strokes gained (2.953) while showing more finesse than he had in the past with 0.517 strokes gained putting (27th on TOUR) and a top-20 ranking in scrambling (65.31%, 20th on TOUR). Simply put, there is a reason he is ranked the No. 1 player in the world and there is no reason to not put him in your lineup at Eagle Point.

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WAGERS LOST:

7018 W. Simpson +102 over D. Berger (risking 1 unit) = -1 unit

7032 H. Swafford +102 over M. Laird (risking 1 unit) = -1 unit

4 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each= -0.8 units

TOTAL losses - 2.8 units

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WAGERS WON:

A. Noren +121 over L. Glover (risking 1 unit) = +1.21 units

Byeong Hun An over J. Furyk (Risking -1.06 units to win 1) = +1 unit

B. Harman -124 over S. Kjeldsen (Risking 1.24 units to win 1) = -1 unit

Harman to win outright = +13.26 units

Note: We cashed pout half our bet on Harman at 41-1 on the last hole

TOTAL WINS: +16.47 units

Therefore 16.47 units - 2.8 units = a net profit of 13.67 units

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Our Pick

PGA Wagers (Risking 6.44 units - To Win: 0.00)