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Posted Wednesday at 6:30 PM EST. 

CIMB Classic

Books close at 7:45 PM EST on Wednesday night. 

The CIMB Classic became a fully-fledged PGA tournament back in 2013, and is co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour – hence the healthy dose of Asian pros in the field here.  The CIMB Classic remains the only PGA TOUR event to be hosted in the Far East, and this year’s renewal will take place at the sumptuous Kuala Lumpar Golf & Country Club.

Many will remember that this was the host venue for Justin Thomas’ triumph in 2015, and after playing his 72 holes at -26 let’s just say it is one of the more forgiving stretches on the PGA TOUR.

Designed by the Nelson & Haworth combo who are also responsible for Sheshan International (which plays host to the WGC-HSBC Champions event), this is a relatively short Par 72 at 7,005 yards, and clearly scoring opportunities are available on every hole.  The wider-than-average fairways offer forgiveness for wayward drives, with the slow greens offering plenty of reward for GIR (Greens in Regulation) merchants.

Fairways and rough are made up of Seashore Paspalum, as you might expect in this part of the world, with the greens a Seaisle Supreme make-up.  There’s nothing to particularly worry about here, although you might assume this gives the Asian professionals a nice advantage.  With rain predicted in the build-up to Thursday’s tee times and humidity somewhere around 60%, the greens are going to play super-slow and be very receptive from all angles.

Justin Thomas’ playbook last year was to get the ball onto the green by hook or by crook, and then putt well to get the job done.  With rain forecast in the run-up to the event, thus slowing the greens further, we can expect a similar pattern to unfold this week.

So Greens in Regulation and Putts Per GIR are our main weapons this time around, with an ability to shoot low on easy courses a specific but necessary skill. While we like guys like Ryan Moore, Kevin Na and others, the prices on them are too short. We’re not interested in a 10 or 15-1 shot in an 80 man field so the following players hold more value with a chance to win it.

We are playing them to win at Bet365 because of their cash-out option and the heads up matches are played at Pinnacle (unless stated otherwise) because of their low juice offerings. 

Tony Finau 50-1

Tony Finau has been able to slowly make his way up the OWGR and comes into this week in 78th after a tie for 26th in the Safeway Open.  He is one of those players that we feel is on the cusp of becoming a household name in golf, and recently has been able to show some consistency with eight made cuts over his last 10 events. Not all of those were too impressive, though, with three finishing lower than 66th, but he did get into the top-26 at the other five and four of those have come in his past five tournaments since the start of August. His powerful drive (312.2 yards per) had him ranked third on Tour in distance last season while he gained the 25th-most strokes (0.455) off the tee. The past two seasons have seen Finau make it to the weekend on 41-of-59 (69%) of his opportunities and his recent stretch of solid finishes should put him in line to improve on his ninth place at this course a year ago (risking 0.2 units to win 10).

Head-to-head:

#7028 T. Finau +123 over B. Grace (risking 1 unit). 

Si-Woo Kim 45-1

Kim is a young talent that appears to be heading towards the top of the game. There hasn’t been many better players on the Tour than Si-Woo Kim since the summer, and his victory at the Wyndham Championship – complete with a round of 60 – was a real statement of intent coming as it did less than a month after his play-off heartache at the Barbasol Championship. Three top-20 finishes in the FedExCup make a mockery of his Vegas odds here, and having been born and raised in South Korea, he will be well-suited to conditions in the Far East.  Nice overlay here. (risking 0.2 units to win 9).  

Head-to-head:

#7030 Si Woo Kim -133 over A. Lahiri (risking 1.33 units to win 1). 

Scott Hend 80-1

We can class the Aussie as a sleeper pick as he is largely unknown to the American golf fraternity, but those across the pond are well aware of Hend’s talents. A European and former Asian Tour specialist, Hend has returned two top-5s in September alone at the KLM Open and the European Masters, which suggests the form is there for a title assault, while an event win in Thailand plus top-15s in China, Dubai, and Mauritius confirm these conditions play into his hands.

Quietly, Hend quite fancies getting himself a PGA TOUR card, and events like these are an opportunity to put himself in the shop window.  He is erratic, occasionally a loose cannon, and his short game can go awry, but for a proven winner that putts well and booms the ball off the peg, the Aussie is a dream pick this week even if he might not get into the hunt for top honours (risking 0.2 units to win 16). 

Key stats:

Three-time tour winner

Asian Tour Order of Merit winner

Head-to-head:

#7032 S. Hend +108 over K. Kisner (risking 1 unit).

===============================================

RESULTS:

LOST

3 players to win outright at 0.2 units each = -0.6 units

Si Woo Kim -133 over A. Lahiri (risking 1.33 units to win 1). 

total -1.93 units

WON

S. Hend +108 over K. Kisner (risking 1 unit).

Finau +123 over J. Vegas (risking 1 unit)

TOTAL + 2,31 units,

Therefore, 2.31 - 1.93 = +0.39

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.