Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 PM EST.
7:30 PM EST. With four wins in a row and a 6-2 overall record, the Blue Bombers are on fire and so it would seem reasonable to back them as a very small favorite in Montreal. That may be so but we’re going to stick with our philosophies here of buying low/selling high and putting more emphasis on situations rather than X’s and O’s. The CFL season hasn’t even really started yet, as nine teams will play 18 games to eliminate three teams from the playoffs. It is therefore unreasonable to expect any CFL team to maintain high intensity for the entire year and this appears to be the week that the Bombers are likely to relax a bit. Winnipeg’s four successive wins started with a 41-40 victory over these same Alouettes back in Winnipeg On July 27. You may remember that the Bombers scored 13 points in the final 58 seconds to pull out a miracle victory. The very next week, the Bombers pulled another rabbit out of their hat with a 33-30 victory over Ottawa. Last week, the Bombers played a highly anticipated home game against the then undefeated Eskimos and in front of a frenzied crowd in Winnipeg, the Bombers went wire to wire in a 33-26 victory. That was one of Winnipeg’s biggest regular season wins in a very long time and they’re still writing and talking about it in that region. The Bombers are in a massive letdown spot here in a game that means very little to them in the grand scheme of things.
The last time this market saw the Alouettes was this past Saturday in Toronto and it did not leave a good impression. Montreal was out of that game early in the second quarter when the Argonauts took a 28-0 lead five minutes into the second quarter and led 35-0 at the half. The Argos would cruise the rest of the way en route to an easy 38-6 victory. Montreal was an embarrassed football team and while we cannot guarantee a victory here, we can guarantee that there will be an intensity response. Perhaps Montreal was looking ahead to this week’s revenge game, as they had the Bombers by the throat a month ago and gave it away. Perhaps they simply were not ready but that goes back to it being unreasonable to expect teams’ to be sharp all 18 games. What we know for sure is that this situation heavily favors the Als in their own barn. We also know that Montreal outgained Winnipeg by over 100 yards on the ground back in Winnipeg four weeks ago and ended up outgaining the Bombers by 93 yards overall. Prior to that debacle last week in Toronto, Montreal had outgained four straight opponents, including the Stampeders in which Montreal defeated Calgary, 30-23. Let’s not forget that Montreal is 3-1 at home with victories over Calgary, Toronto and Saskatchewan and just a seven-point loss to B.C. In that loss to the Lions, the game was tied with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. So, while it appears like the Bombers are being sold short here, it is the Alouettes that are being sold short based on last week’s horrible performance. We’ll play it accordingly.
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MONTREAL +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)